Before the topic of the marathon race today, I would like to have a little bit explanation of the interest rate on my website. The real rate might be lower. Please email me if you are interested.

The main reason is that I do not attract shoppers. So I mainly work for my past clients and your friends. I got a few early payoffs this year(actually 4 payoffs, one of the lender did not want me to pay back since our volume was good, but I paid penalties for the other three). And I indeed told them not to refinance earlier. And one of them told me that the other lender's rate was low. And I told him drug dealers can make more money, do you want to do it?

The good thing was the payoffs was still less than 1%. So most of my clients are actually very very good. I indeed rejected a few loans, for example, I locked 2.75% for client, and he asked to re-lock the rate since other lender could lock a rate for 2.69%.

Back to the marathon race. We got the email yesterday morning that the race was cancelled due to increased covid-19 cases. So 3 of us decided to run on our own. The pace was not bad.

I took a water break on mile 9 & 19. I think my legs had a rest after that. I felt very good after the run, and took 1.25 hrs nap, and back to work on the loans again.

And I will follow shelter in place order for the next a few weeks/months

1)

Stocks, Bonds, and rates are responding to the tug-of-war playing out between vaccine hopes and the rise in COVID-19 cases, along with additional lockdowns.

Pfizer was out this past week saying its vaccine has a 95% effectiveness rate. Moreover, the firm says they will have 50 million doses available before year-end and as much as 1.3 billion doses available in 2021.

On top of this, Moderna has a very effective vaccine and there are dozens of firms ready to deliver additional doses and therapeutics.

Stocks and rates have moved higher because both are forward-looking. Yes, the rise in cases and hospitalizations is a concern, but at the moment the markets are looking four to six months down the road and there is hope that with a high vaccination rate we can return back to normal sometime in 2021.

2)

Single-family Housing Starts showed the highest reading since 2007! Historically low interest rates and shifting demand to move to the suburbs are the drivers.

The main challenge for builders is keeping up with the demand. Available lots and decreased availability of supplies are headwinds for builders.

One thing is for sure: If land and materials are scarce, expect new home prices, currently averaging $326,000, to continue to climb.

Bottom line: Rates hit historic lows, as reported by Freddie Mac, this week. With a vaccine and more stimulus on the way, it may be difficult to see rates improve much, if at all. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity, please contact me.

Great news for vaccine from Pfizer and Moderna. I think our life will be back to normal after summer of 2021.

2021 Napa Marathon cancelled as well. I think they should postpone it till the 2nd half of next year. Anyway, I do not have to register a lot of marathons for the next 2 years(Postponed Marathons: Houston Marathon, San Francisco Marathon, Napa Marathon, CIM, and Mountain to Beach Marathons, I paid them and will run those marathons in 2021 & 2022?).

Training is getting better. I gained some weights because of heavy afternoon tea(I need it because of the heavy/busy schedules, need more energy), and now I started cutting the diet and had more workout. My weight was back to 176.5 lbs this AM. Need to lose 2-5 more lbs.

Finished 18 Miles last Saturday(Nov 14th), Half Marathon Tuesday(Nov 17th) and Half Marathon Thursday(Nov 19th). Today's training was the best one since I ran based on my heart rate. It was between 144 and 147. I will do the same for the next a few halves, and the Marathon on Dec 6th.

Paces for Saturday:
Paces for Tuesday:

Paces for today:

It is very interesting. I started training for a Jan marathon since Oct. And in Nov, I ran one half marathons almost every other day. And I felt good. I can finish around 1:45 to 1:50 most of the time. And I know I am ready for a marathon, and yesterday I got the email saying that I can register for a marathon with less than 500 runners.

Finished another half marathon yesterday. Here is the pace:

 And I will run another half marathon tomorrow, or maybe 16 miles. It depends how I feel after the half. But I will need a long run before the race.

Still gained some weights recently. That was mainly due to my afternoon tea. I worked very hard in the last a few months, and my body needed sugar, so I had a very good afternoon tea, and my body absorbed most of the fat. It is the time to lose 3-5 lbs before the race. 

Since I did not run a marathon race for a long time, I expect to finish around 3:40. Let's see my training results in 3 weeks.

The interest rate went up a little bit because of the good news from Pfizer, and the stock market went up a lot as well.

If you read my blogs recently, I ran 3 half marathons each week, and I told my wife that my body is marathon ready. So whenever we can run marathons again, then I do not need extra training. And you can tell what I am very optimistic about the vaccine and the economy recovery. If China can do it(Pandemic under control), we can do it as well.

I know a lot of people expect much lower market rates, if there is more optimistic news about vaccine, then the interest rates were bottomed. That's why I always recommend to take whatever the best rate on the market. We never know which rate is the best rate. And we can not timing the market, either stock market, or bonds.

Here is the pace for another half marathon this morning, I think I can keep it below 1hr50 minutes for quite sometime:

And I still have lots of room since my heart rate us only around 145. I know it was around 160 to 165 at the race.

Another easy half marathon this morning. It seems pretty easy, since it is very slow. Here is the pace:


Did not push that much. See the link below: www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020

I thought I did not run well. But it turned out ok. It was only about 3.5 minutes slower than Tuesday. Let's see whether I can run another  good one this Saturday. Here is the link for the Half Marathons I ran after May 21st: http://www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020

I listened a podcast yesterday. It is about Money. And money is a tool, it is not your ultimate goal. You can use money as a tool to reach your goals, or the life you enjoy and want to have. And while I ran this morning, I thought what would be my best investment, QQQ, SP 500 index funds? No. I think the most important thing is my health. I can complete lots of loans and make good money as long I stay healthy. You may not believe it, I finished about 40-50 books this year, ran 1900 miles, and completed over 100 million loans. And I still feel good.

Here is my pace today:

Already finished 18 half marathons after May. I finished today's 1:44:32. No bad. Seem like I can finish marathon under 3:30 soon. Here is the list:  http://www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020.

And the pace today:

If we keep trying, I know I can run faster next year. Finished 8 miles tempo today, the pace is not perfect. But it was ok:

Got Nike Air Zoom Alphafly yesterday, and ran the tempo this morning. My running form was bad, and my core muscle is not strong enough. I need more weight lifting and abs workout. Maybe more abs workout. Because of the pandemic , my gym was closed. 

Here are the paces for the 6 miles(from Mile 3 to 8):

Will try those paces for a few weeks, then move to the next level. And yes, the weather is much better now.

After one week of training, my pace was back a little bit. I hope next week's tempo pace would be back to around 7:50. Anyway, it was a good run. See the list for the half marathon I finished after May: www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020


I still keep reading for at lease one hour per day. I will update the booklist next week.

It is not because I started running. Just kidding. I ran more because the rate went up slightly higher. 

You can click https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=^TNX,then click 1M, so you will see the trend.

>>>>>>

Rocking the 80s

This past week, the U.S. 10-year Note yield, a proxy for long-term interest rates, climbed back above .80% for the first time since June. At the same time, mortgage-backed security prices, which determine home loan rates, declined to their lowest level since July, pushing mortgage rates higher.

Why?

Stimulus, Stimulus, Stimulus

With two weeks to go before the election, it's not a matter of if, but when a stimulus plan is coming. At the moment, it's looking like a plan of at least $2 trillion or more and the markets are preparing for the "future", which looks like further economic expansion and a growing threat of inflation -- both of which Bonds and rates hate.

In addition to the positive economic outcome stimulus provides, the new stimulus must be purchased by investors through Treasury auctions and the increased supply weighs on prices and drives yields/rates higher.

Don't Fight the Fed

This recent rise in rates has the Fed's attention. At the moment, the Fed is purchasing $120 billion worth of Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds each month to help pin down rates. Should Treasury yields continue to climb and drag Mortgage Bond prices lower still, causing home loan rates to rise, it is very likely that the Fed will step in and either buy even more Bonds and/or institute some sort of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to pin down long-term rates.

The Fed wants to further stimulate the economy by giving more and more people the ability to refinance or purchase a home, and much higher rates would prevent those efforts.

Bottom line: Rates are just above all-time lows, and as we are already starting to see, that they may not be for long. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity for housing, please contact me.

Looking Ahead

In addition to the stimulus hopes, forthcoming election results, coronavirus cases rising around the globe, vaccine hopes, and more economies opening, there is a boatload of economic reports set for release next week that can move the markets.

There is also another round of Treasury supply hitting the Bond markets. It will be interesting to see if the recent increase in yields will be enough to attract investors.

<<<<<< 

The plan was to get 50+ miles per week, 4 mile tempo or speed work out on Tuesday, 7-10 Miles Tempo on Thursdays. And a long run on the weekend. For the long run, it will be either 10 miles or 13-16 miles. I will run 10 miles on every other weekend. And 13 to 16 miles on another weekend.

Here is the workout for today:
And the workout last Tuesday:

The pace was not fast, around 8 minutes per mile. Will improve gradually. I think I can run any marathons over the weekend after 2 months of training.

And I rewarded myself with a new pair of nike shoes: Nike Air Zoom Alphafly Next%. I should be able to run 7:40 pace in Dec; 7:30 pace in Jan.

I told my wife today that I wasted my beautiful morning on running. Ran a 2 hour half marathon, and another 45 minutes to take a rest, and still did not touch any of the loans. I know I still need to work on 5 other loans.

Planned to run 50 half marathons this year. The link is here: www.ericfang.com/50HalfMarathon_in_2020. But I did not run much during the summer since I had to focus on the funding. I was afraid the funder would request something from me, and if I could not get to her right away, then I would delay the closing. That's why i closed lots of loans in the past a few months. But I think I need a change, the loans are not that important. And I think the good health, the exercise is more important.

I would run a marathon myself on 01/08/2021 or 01/09/2021 to celebrate my birthday. Starting next year, to qualify Boston is a piece of cake for me now, the real reason is because of my age. I am not sure whether this a good thing, or bad.

I registered Napa Marathon this morning. It is supposed to take place on March 7th, 2021. I hope I could run, but it is ok if the race would be deferred again. But I would pretend the race will continue so I will train as scheduled.  And the most important thing was I registered London Marathon for October. Hopefully I can run by then.

I do not know whether you can read to the end of this blog, and the most important one, about the interest rate: I think the rate will keep going down. Let's get ready and take whatever the market gives.

And the last thing, the real estate market is very hot. It is very hard to get a property in Irvine, San Diego, Seattle, Truckee, and Tahoe. I heard that the Tahoe market is up 30% to 40% this year.

I started my planning for marathon again. Over the weekend, I finished a half marathon Saturday with the finish time 2:00:02. Not bad. And also I contacted charities for running London Marathon in Oct 2021. And I am training for it now.

I updated my marathons www.ericfang.com/MarathonCompleted today. I will register more once there are more good news regarding the pandemic. I know and I am certain it will be over soon. So let's prepare for the best.

Some good news for the H1B holders. I have an attorney friend who told  me today that she was very very this year just because the green card status moved 2 years faster than expected. So lots of applicants will get the green card soon.

Good for them, and good for everyone of us.

I talked to one of my friends today and encouraged him to be a loan agent. The main reason is that our rates are very competitive. So we have some advantage for the business.

But that does not mean we have the lowest rate, or we can get the lowest rate. The reason is very simple: we are not sure whether the rate go much lower from the current level, and we do not recommend my borrowers just "wait" for the best rate.

A few reasons, for example, I had one propect who has 3.75% rate for jumbo loan, and I recommend him to get 3% and finish the refi. The main savings is from 3.75% to 3%. You can wait for 2.875%, but the longer you wait , the more you will pay during the waiting period. And you do not know whether 2.875% would be the lowest. You never know. In Europe, people are paying around 2% mortgage rates now.

I have another client who is very busy professional. And she emailed yesterday and told me that the previous agent who could not get her a better rate, and offered 0.125% better rate. I told her that he could try, but for my own opinion, if you have a very good professional working for you, do you really want to change, and you do not even know much about the other agent?

I have been working with my CPA for over 20 years. And when my friends asked me for the referral, I recommended him, and yes, he charged more hourly fee. But when I worked with him for such a long time, I feel very comfortable with the fees, and I do know some other CPAs charge much less. But indeed he knows me, knows my financial and my business, and gives me some advice once in a while. And in another word, we are like friends.

And also recently I got very good advice about the investment. It is worth more than just the money. Sometimes, some good advice in invaluable.

Back to the topic of running, I think I am ready for another round of training, maybe I can not run a marathon any time soon, I can try a virtual. I got the notice of SF Marathon, CIM, Houston Marathon cancelled. So I will not register any marathons in the near future. But I will plan to run a virtual myself. Maybe sometime March of 2021.

The interest rate went up last week. I did not change my website rate recently, for about three weeks. Normally I did not have the lowest rate on the website for some programs, sometimes more traffic is a good thing, other times it is not.

I will close about 20m loans this month. I dreamed about this level for quite some time, and when finally I am back at this level, I am not exited at all.

My dream scenario is that I can work at my own pace, I can work smartly, and also very competitively. Sometime I am cool about it, other times I am not. I know I can close more loans, but I need room for reading, running , travelling(can not do it now).

I still run about 6 miles a day, read at least one hour per day. And a little bit weight lifting related or abs related workout once in a while. San Francisco Marathon sent me emails about virtual marathon. Not sure whether I will do it, though I still lack of the marathon training. And CIM marathon cancelled this year as well.

The good news is that the interest rate went up this week. Suddenly I have a little more time now. So I am rich now, in time, I can have more time, what should I do? Maybe more reading, more running, what else can I do. Maybe I can prepare a virtual marathon this year.

The bad news is that the interest rate will go back lower again. Maybe as soon as Nov-Dec time. So if you miss the boat, we can still have plenty of time. But do not have your own expectation of the rate, we do not how low it can go.

Let's finish this blog with a story. When Ben Bernanke was the Fed Chairman, he refinanced his home loan twice. He did not know the rate could go lower the first time, and he still did not get the lowest rate the 2nd time. As someone said, no one can predict the market.

And I will write blogs more. That's a good thing, for sure.

I was thinking a lot recently. My business in August was 25% better than July. Then I realized that I would need to slow down. So I started going back to the Gym(with masks), and started workouts. My personal trainer said that I looked like losing some weight and so slim now. I know why, I did not do much abs recently. Si I went back and started exercising as regularly as before.

I did not run much either, though I biked a lot. I would follow a schedule and train for the virtual San Francisco Marathon. Then at least we can "pretend" everything is normal.

Jumbo rate starts getting better, especially those 30 year fixed. Around 3.125% or better, depends on the loan amount, LTV. So the size of the loan would be picking up.

Still hold those tech stocks I picked up in March, April time, NVDA, FB, QQQ, NKE, GOOG, MA etc. All at comfortable level. Will hold it for some time.

And surprisingly, I purchased FNF recently. I think the Refi will help FNF, and anyway, there is 4% dividend, you know, I like dividend so that I can hold it longer.

Still keep reading books, around 1 hour per day, really enjoyed. I think I would write some notes, or share it with some others.  

It means that it is going higher. We can not do some low rates now, like 2.5% for 15 yr fixed etc. And 3% for 30 Yr fixed high balance now.

I know some people might get better rates, like some clothes sale on the black Friday, you might get some Exceptional good rates. But some people might get hurts. I do not know how many lenders will "void" those very low rates when FHFA charged 0.5% fees. It squeezed the profit margin, and make the lender unwilling to close the loans. 

Please let me know when the lender tell you that they were busy, and your rate expired, so they could not get those rates for you?

The interest rates started going up(or paused the trend of going down). So do not expect the rate will go down too much from here. One of the main reason was because of the news below: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/951943.aspx

Yes, the government wanted their share of the booming refinance.

This morning I got an email from a client: I will pull the trigger if the high balance loan rate is 2.875% or lower. But I told him that it might be hard. 

The question to me is : why you set up a goal for 2.875% or 2.75% or lower: How did you get the target? 

The reason for my question was actually, personally I think those rates are very very good rate. Just grab whatever you can get. You can not get those rates all the time. Those are cheap debt. 

A few months ago, a client complained that he missed the good opportunities of the coming back of the stock market this year. And he thought that the market would go lower. And it did not. But for me, I do not even care whether the marker will go further lower or not. I divided my cash into 4, and purchased 25% as the market went down 10%; then another 25% as it went down 20%; and another 25% when it went down 30%. And I still have the rest of the cash on hand.

I told my clients to stay with the lender for 6 months after the closing. But still there was one person refinanced within the 6 months. And we would get the penalty if the loan gets closed soon. 

Did not run much the last week because of the heat and wild fire, not sure whether I can run more next week since I will fund 15 loans in the next 6 business days of this month. Very busy the end of the month.

But I still continue the reading and I really enjoy it. This week I started : How to Live: Or A Life of Montaigne in One Question and Twenty Attempts at an Answer by Sarah Bakewell. This is a good book, especially after a weekend running or biking.
  

Some of you might have already known that the government wanted to share the profits from the refinance business. Basically they wanted to have 0.5% for each loan. And because of that, the rate will go up around 0.125% for each loans. The rental rates has not been stablized yet. 

See the link below. http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/951943.aspx  

For me, I am still doing great, for my exercise and business. I rode bikes a lot recently, mainly because that it is too hot. I will be back to running when it cools down a little bit. For the refinance business, June business increased 25% from May; And July's business increased another 20%. August is expected to have another 20% increase. The only problem is that I am no longer young any more. Otherwise, I can finish the twice of the volume. On the one side, I am missing the old days when I have endless energies. And on the other side, I am still happy about what I accomplished.

Glad to talk to a few of the clients. The basic topic was : do not think too much about the refinance rate. The mortgage business is only very very tiny part of your financial picture. You will need to think BIG, think the long run and think for the future.

Two things are for sure now: 1)The debt is cheap. When the interest rate is below 3%, borrower as much as possible. 2)Do not be afraid of the financial markets. If you take a look of the RE market, the stock market 20 years ago, everything was cheap. Just purchase it, and keep it. This is for long run. If you purchased a house in the bay area, it does not matter how much you paid for it. 300k or 400k purchase price, it does not matter. Right?

I am working on one loan for 750k with the rate 3.125% for 30 yr fixed. But this rate requires FICO over 800. And some good rates for 15 yr fixed as well.

Too busy for the past a few weeks. I still kept reading, that's the way I got relaxed. Still on the track of finishing "The Story of the Roman People" series. Will finish Volume 14th this week. And will complete the last volume next week.

The only other thing I was not doing well is running. Since I did not run too much, and I ate too much when I work long hours, and eat a little bit more(I like chocolate too), so I gained a few pounds. I need to work on the running this week.

Loan volume was up 40% from May to June. And it is expected that volume will inncrease another 10% to 15% for July & August.  

My biggest problem and challenge is : how to balance the life, the time with my family, my reading, my running etc.

Almost half of 2020 will be over next week. And I spent most of the time working on loans. I know this is not right, but I do not have much choices.

My loan volume is up 42% in June compared to May. But I can still close half of the loan volumes, compared to 2009 to 2013. Mainly because of the capacity from the lenders, the escrow company, and I can not hire assistants either.

Finished 10 half marathons after May 21st(The link is here). I got a little bit schedule problems recently. Since I was busy for the loan funding, I could not just go out for the running from 7am and back to home 9am, then fund the loans. I still need the time to reply the other emails, lock the rates, etc.

I still have 32 locked loans needs to be closed in July. I always told myself that I had enough loans, and I need slow down, spend more time for the reading, spend more time with my family and also on running. And yes, biking as well.

Finished The Beginning of the End -- The Story of the Roman People vol. XI last week, that means I already finished 11 of 15 books. I can finish the whole volumes in the monthly July.

I did not go out for the running this Saturday. I started reading the book: 

????:???,????. I am surprised that Amazon has some books in Chinese. And I enjoyed the beautiful Saturday morning with such a book. I did not like go to museums before, but I think I have much better sense now after those history books, etc.
By the way, I like ???? as well.

I completed 7 Half Marathons starting May. Finished one this morning with 1:51:40. It was good, and I think my body was still tired, mainly because of the long hours on the loans. Plan to improve the time a little bit tomorrow. I will run another half tomorrow, one more on Sunday. Here is the link: www.ericfang.com/50HalfMarathon_in_2020

Plan to finish page 90 of the book Wolf Hall by Hilary Mantel. I like it so far. Since I just read the Story of Roman People series, and the book: My friend Machiavelli -- The Rise and Fall of Florence. So they are about the same era. Not difficult to read. My cheating strategy was : I read one chapter in Chinese, then one chapter in English, so that I do not have to check the dictionary all the time.

And definitely I would finish the book: The Century of Wise Emperors - The Story of the Roman People vol. IX by this weekend. So far 2/3rd finished.

Finished 40 pages of Wolf Hall. Then that's 1/15th of the book. And I should finish finish the first 60 pages by the end of today. And completed 5/9th of the Book  The Century of Wise Emperors - The Story of the Roman People vol. IX. On the track to finish the reading by this weekend.

Lenders will not allow me to lock more than 6 loans per week. So I have plenty time to read more books. And maybe I can run 3 half marathons(tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday), and still keep the weekly mileage over 50 miles?

Life is not good if you just keep working for money, but not enjoying yourself. Reading is one of the things I like to do, other than running and travelling. I hope we can travel again, maybe sometime next year?

I completed 15 pages yesterday. and planned to do the same thing today. If I can keep reading for 15 pages per day, then I can complete the reading the end of July. And I will finish all the 15 volumes of "The Story of Roman People".

15 pages seems like easy, but it is hard to do it everyday. Especially when it was written in British English. But I like to finish this books about Henry VIII and Thomas Cromwell. Especially after I finished the book: My friend Niccolò Machiavelli.  Both of them were about 16th century. And you can find some dots connected. I will talk about it next time, hopefully tomorrow.

For lots of my clients, they would like to stick with me for a long time, even 10 or 15 years. And they know I would provide some "extra" advice on the investment, the RE purchase etc. 

I got an email today from one of my clients. He planned to purchase another property, and asked about the interest rates for 5% down. I told him to think about his goal and strategies. The reason was that he just did two refinances, and he paid down both his rental and his primary. If his goal is to purchase more properties, then why he paid down those loans. He needs to keep the cash on hand. Though we do not make money on those cash, but we can use them for the extra investment opportunities. If he kept the money, he could make 20% down, and get good rates for the future purchases.

I have a good CPA, and he worked for me for almost 20 years. At the beginning of covid-19, he emailed twice and called one to get PPP loan(I did not apply since my business was not affected). And I asked him about whether I need a payroll for my wife, and whether I need an LLC for my rental properties. He gave me very good advice.

A few years back, a lot of people told me that we could not find good financial advisors. One of the reason was that they are "expensive". And even if we happened to have the chance to get a very good one, we might think they are expensive and choose a cheap one. And you know , most of the time, the service is cheap for a reason.

I do not time the market. And it is 1st day of the month again. Seems like no good stocks to purchase. I will get some T. At least the dividend ratio is still over 6%.