October 15th, 2011 9:57 PM by Eric Fang
1. Home Sales Steady Before Slight IncreaseThe MBA expects total existing home sales will stay around the 4.9 million unit pace for 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, the MBA expects home sales to increase slightly to 5.2 million units, as the broader economy recovers. New home sales are expected to be similar to the overall trend. As the MBA stated in its release: The recovery in the new home sales will have a comparably slow start but will show some meaningful increases in 2013.
2. Slight Growth in Home PurchasesDespite an expected decrease in refinances, the MBA forecasts some slight growth in the number of mortgages for home purchases. Specifically, the MBA anticipates home loans for purchases to increase to $412 Billion in 2012, which would be up from the anticipated 2011 total of $400 Billion. Better still, the MBA expects home loans for purchases to jump significantly to $700 Billion in 2013 as the economy, home sales, and home prices are all anticipated to pick up.
3. Rates to Remain LowOverall, fixed home loan rates are expected to remain low by historical standards. The MBA expects rates to end 2011 around a 4.5 percent average, and then possibly dropping slightly to 4.4 percent at some point in 2012. But by 2013, the MBA expects rates to climb back up to 4.9 percent which is still low by historical standards but does indicate a change in direction.