First, here is the link for the article. https://www.npr.org/2022/05/12/1097979009/home-prices-could-fall-in-some-u-s-cities-heres-where-and-why
My summary is below:
1)For some areas, It is over-valued. Places like Boise, Idaho; Sherman-Denison, TX
;Muskegon, MI etc. "Boise, Phoenix, Austin and Miami
have been particularly hot
2)There is no crash of the RE market yet for the following reasons
a)"One is supply — there's a shortage of homes available,"
we are about 4 million homes short of what the country needsb)New federal rules have put an end to the reckless mortgage lending that led to the housing bubble 15 years ago
c)I added this one: inflation of the labor cost and the material cost.
Conclusion: We might not see a crash at this level. For some areas, the price will go down; and other areas, the price will not go up too much.
Now I can help you for the properties purchase in WA and TX now. Other states will follow.
Still running at a good pace after Tuesday's workout. The pace split today:
The pace for 3X1.5mile Tuesday:
Completed a sactown 10 miler race with the pace of sub-7. Here are the splits:
Then good news is that my license for WA was accepted. The bad news was the higher interest rates weeks after weeks. But I believe the rate should be eased after 6 months. So the current buyers might be able to refinance a few months later.
Had a few good trainings for the half marathons now. I can run 4 miles under 7:00 now.
See part of my training log at Eric Fang's Running Blogs. It is more important to have more excise when I am getting older. We will see whether I can get another PR within the next 2 months.
Please see my race splits here: Eric Fang's Running Blogs
The exciting other races would be: Berlin Marathon in Sep; New York Marathon in Nov.
30 yr fixed rate is higher now. But if you have loan amount , the rate can be as low as 3.875% to 4%. Please email me if you have similar scenario.
I finished the courses for NV license. It will take a few months for the license ready. For WA and TX licenses, it should be ready some time in March.
Running is pretty good. I finished 18 mile run Feb 6, 2022, it was called spicy long run with 12 miles tempo run in the end. Finished pretty strong.
See the splits here: http://ericfang.blogspot.com/
The interest rates went another quarter higher last week. Please just get refinance whenever the rate is good. The trend will only be higher.
1)Out of State Loans.I am working to get the loan licenses for the State of WA, TX and Nevada now. For all the other states, I can only do investment loans. Wait for the approval for WA and TX. Working on the courses for NV.
2)Rate Updates.Conforming loan rates went up a lot recently. The best loan rate/program is 7 yr fixed or 5 yr fixed. The rate is around 2.625% to cover all or most of the closing costs. The APR is around 3.75% now.
3)MarathonsI still at the best fitness level. I ran 2021 California International Marathon for the finish time of 3:21:13. I would try to see whether I can run a few minutes faster for March 2, 2022 Napa Marathon. My 3:21:13 finish was within one minute of my best time of 3:20:18.
I will the following exciting races this year:Napa Marathon in MarchSan Francisco Marathon in JulyBerlin Marathon end of Nov.New York City Marathon beginning of Nov.CIM(California International Marathon) Beginning of Dec.
I will run a few half marathon with my wife. The interest one would be: Avenue of Giants on May 1st, 2022.I will run though the redwoods, which was in the northern California. And We will celebrate of our 29 years marriage that day.
4)No docs loans, Assets based loans.We can do those loans in California. But the rates are high.
Could not believe the low rates this days, especially for the ARM.
APR below 2.75% for the above loans. And the rates are for no closing cost at all.
Hi, the best rate would be 1.875% for 5/6m ARM. The rate is fixed for first 5 years, and then adjusted every 6 month after that. This program is good for those who want to take advantage this low rate , and comfortable with ARM. The loan rate will be slightly higher for smaller loan amount.
Got the 2nd dose done for vaccine. Had a little bit side effect the 2nd day. Had some warning sign from the aging body. Could not run much recently because of the achilles tendinitis. I might need to stretch more after future runs. Never had this before. I might have to wait for 2 months before another steady longer distance running.
Today's ARM rate is around: 10/1 ARM 2.625%; 7/1ARM 2.375% to 2.5%; 5/1 ARM 2.375%. Those are the rates for the loan amount around $548k. The rate will be higher for the lower loan amount.
My frozen shoulder is getting better after a massage. I will try to get another one next week. Hopefully it will get better after 2-3 months.
It is Boston Marathon registration week. I do not think I will register and run Boston this year. Still prefer local races.
Finished the book: Breakfast with Buddha. Should I try : Dinner with Buddha, and Lunch with Buddha? Not sure yet.
The rate is as low as 15 yr fixed 2.25% to 2.375%(APR 2.25% to 2.375%); 10 yr fixed 2.0% to 2.125% (APR 2.25% to 2.375%). This is the best rate we can have. 30 yr fixed rate still high.
Finished the book: Think Again by Adam Grant. Almost finished the book: Van Gogh: The life. I think I can finish the book by this weekend.
Still pretty busy with the loans. I actually hope I can have more time for the reading. Purchased two books: The Unwinding: An Inner History of the New America and Nomadland. I plan to finish them by this summer.
Registered a few marathons this Fall. Hopefully I can run those marathons again. Most likely I will skip Boston this year, not sure whether I can get Tokyo. Plan to run Berlin next year. Too late to register Berlin.
A little bit lazy recently, mainly might be because of my frozen shoulders. I hope life be back to normal. And I got the fisrt vaccine yesterday from Pfizer.
We have 10/1 ARM around 2.625%; 7/1 ARM 2.5%; 5/1 ARM 2.25%. All no closing cost at all. Please email me firstname.lastname@example.org for the rate quotes.
Fannie Mae is tightening the underwriting criteria for second homes and investment properties, the government sponsored entity said in a letter to sellers on Wednesday.
“Recent amendments to our senior preferred stock purchase agreement with Treasury impose additional risk criteria on the loans we acquire,” the GSE said in a letter. “One of those restrictions is a 7% limit on our acquisition of single-family mortgage loans secured by second home and investment properties.”
A lot of good rates are gone. Jumbo 7/1 ARM rate still good, I locked several for 2.625% to 2.75%, depends on the loan amount and Loan to Value ratio.
It will be a different year for 2021. The rate went higher, and I have more time for running, abs workout, and reading. I plan to run a marathon July or August this year.
Just realized that in order to get good returns, you just hold the stocks or funds(no trading). I had two stocks TSM, and MU for about 20 years. And TSM was up 1368%; And MU 10 folds. The investment amount is small, but the return is good.
Personally I think the lowest rates were gone. It would only go up., but still slowly. And ARM rate is more attractive now if you missed the boat.
For my investment style, my bank stocks went up pretty a little bit this year, but I will pick up some QQQ this year, whether it will go up or lower.
Ran 10 miles yesterday, here are the paces:
I gave one quote today. This was the lowest Jumbo rate after last March. This is a very good rate.
But this lender does not allow to use the rental income to qualify. So it might not be good for all borrowers.
1)All Good Things Come to an End
Interest rates hit historically low levels last year due to the pandemic outbreak and the worst quarterly decline in economic growth ever. Those rates have helped millions of homeowners refinance and save significant money on interest expense. On the purchase side, along with several other tailwinds, low rates have fueled a bonanza in housing.
Fortunately, we are closer to getting past the pandemic as vaccines are now seeing widespread distribution. This, along with enormous stimulus measures, pent-up consumer demand, and easy monetary policy, tells us the good times of ultra-low rates may have come to an end.
2)The Bonds Yield Curve Is Talking
Economists look at things like the yield curve in the bond market to predict oncoming recessions or periods of economic expansion. At the moment, the difference or "gap" between the 2-year note yield and 10-year yield is at the widest level in over three years. This means the bond market is telling us we are about to see an era of economic expansion. Yes, better times ahead. Bonds and rates don't like good news and better times, and it's why we have seen an uptick in rates since the beginning of the year.
3)Inflation Expectations at Nearly 7-Year Highs
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, what we expect to see inflation average over the next 10 years, is just a few basis points away from the higher levels in almost seven years. With Congress batting around another $1 trillion plus stimulus bill, along with fully reopening the economy, there is reason to believe these inflation expectations will rise even further. When inflation moves higher, rates move higher ... period.
4)What About the Fed?
The Fed has played a pivotal role in keeping rates relatively low by purchasing $120B worth of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). But despite those efforts, rates have crept steadily higher with the 10-year yield moving from .50% last August to 1.15% as of this writing.
Should rates move too high too quickly, the Fed will likely do more to try and pin down long-term rates, like purchase even more bonds or invoke some sort of yield curve control.
Conclusion: The interest rate will go slightly higher from now on. At least it will not go lower at this moment. I know a lot people emailed me saying that the interest rates are lower again, which is not true.
I do not like my current website design. And I did not have the time to work on a few links yet, like the the book list etc.
I have been busy for almost a year now, and my life was like this; worked for 1-2 hours, then went out for a running; worked for another 1-2 hours; Then Lunch, and worked for another 1-2 hours; then took a nap, another working again. My reading/napping/running was simply for working more hours. So I hope the pandemic is over soon, so at least I can go out of town and travel, run a few marathons. Was thinking about not working over the weekends. But still too many loans, closed 31 loans last month; and 16 loans so far this month. I know the rate went up a little bit, it might be a good thing. But on the other hand, my clients hope to get lower rates.
Finished the half marathon last Saturday(Jan 30th) with finish time 1:46:58.
And then another half Sunday Jan 31st with finish time 2:06:45.
But I finished today's half one minute faster than last Saturday:
My daughter asked me why I worked on weekends. And I told her that I exercised as well. At least two half marathons on on Saturday and Sunday.
I explained that I had to work because my clients need me to complete the application. Anyway, here are the paces:
January of 2021 was almost over. I had the problem to write this blog because of end life of flash driver of Adobe. My website depends heavily on the flash driver. And it took me some time to figure out how to write a blog again(but the layout is still bad)
A lot of things happened this year, we have a new president now, and the stock market kept going up. And the most important thing for us: the interest rate started going up after Jan 6th. Now it is very hard to get 30 yr fixed rate of 2.5% any more.
But we still have some good news. Like Jumbo 7/1ARM rate is around 2.625%(APR 2.625% to 2.75%); 30 yr fixed Jumbo still around APR 2.875% etc.
For 2020, I had a few major changes: 1)I went to sleep around 10:30pm(went to bed at 9:30pm). So I read a lot of books. And I felt much better. My memory is getting better, and I do not have the headache any more. It bothered me when I worked in HSBC in 2019. And I felt so good. 2) I switched my investment strategy, and switched more funds to QQQ and high tech stocks.
For the first a few weeks of 2021, For my mortgages, I only focus on the past clients and your referrals. Still I believe that the mortgage rate is not that important in our big financial picture. We only need to take whatever best rates the market offers and concentrate on the other important things. For myself, even though I still work hard(I closed 25 loans so far this year), I focus more on the family, my health, my friends etc. I gained some weights(currently weigh around 178lbs to 180lbs) though, mainly because of holiday diets. I planned to do some 10 minutes abs, but it did not go well. So I changed to do abs every other day. My running was still good, I ran on the average of 40-50 miles per week, with one half marathon each week. Here is the paced of the half marathon I ran this morning, still not too bad:
Stocks, Bonds, and rates are responding to the tug-of-war playing out
between vaccine hopes and the rise in COVID-19 cases, along with
Pfizer was out this past week saying its vaccine has a 95%
effectiveness rate. Moreover, the firm says they will have 50 million
doses available before year-end and as much as 1.3 billion doses
available in 2021.
On top of this, Moderna has a very effective vaccine and there are
dozens of firms ready to deliver additional doses and therapeutics.
Stocks and rates have moved higher because both are forward-looking.
Yes, the rise in cases and hospitalizations is a concern, but at the
moment the markets are looking four to six months down the road and
there is hope that with a high vaccination rate we can return back to
normal sometime in 2021.2)
Single-family Housing Starts showed the highest reading since 2007!
Historically low interest rates and shifting demand to move to the
suburbs are the drivers.
The main challenge for builders is keeping up with the demand.
Available lots and decreased availability of supplies are headwinds for
One thing is for sure: If land and materials are scarce, expect new
home prices, currently averaging $326,000, to continue to climb.
Bottom line: Rates hit historic lows, as reported by Freddie Mac,
this week. With a vaccine and more stimulus on the way, it may be
difficult to see rates improve much, if at all. If you or someone you
know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity, please contact