Mortgage Blog

The rate trend and the company PG(Procter and Gamble)

August 22nd, 2017 1:34 PM by Eric Fang

I just want to put the two different topics together to try to get more attention. But I do think it might be a good idea to talk about some stocks. I am still not an expert on it, and basically I am a "fool", but I can translate and copy some others idea.

The mortgage business is really slow. I can only close 5-6 loans in July/August. And this year will be the slowest year in the past 10 years. But I have a gut feeling that the interest rate will go down next year, at least for half of the next year. Then go down further in 2019. I do not have much numbers to support that. But this is still possible. Like I predicted in 2007-2008 that the interest rates would keep going down. It was proved to be a right prediction. I even predicted 5/1ARM went down to 2.25%. You can read through my past blogs if you are interested.

The stock market might have some correction soon. We have encountered the 9th year if economic expansion. And the US has never gone more than ten years without a recession. And Recessions are often associated with bear markets.

So I will continue dollar averaging on SP500 ETF, and at the same time, will sell 25% of my stocks first.

Ok. Let's talk a little bit about PG(Procter and Gamble). Basically PG had difficulties in the past 10 years. In 2008, it had sales of 77B, in 2013, the sales is $84B, but in 2016, the number was $65B. In 2009, the profits is $13B, in 2015, only 7B; 2016 10B. So basically there was not much growth in the past 10 years.

In today's news, Procter & Gamble Co.'s Shaving Business Shrinks -- Again. The article said that Gillette is still losing market share to rivals, but P*G has a plan to get growth back to track. There was company called Dollar Shave Club, who sent you the blades to the home monthly, and "stole" lots of Gillette's business. And Dollar Shave Club was acquired by another retailer Unilever. Also, because of the amazon, P&G faces the competition from the online sales. It squeezed the sales and the profit margin.
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Posted by Eric Fang on August 22nd, 2017 1:34 PM



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