December 22nd, 2010 12:19 AM by Eric Fang
I just complete my Dec Newsletter. And I reviewed my Oct 2010 rate trend. Some of the opinion was right: 1)almost impossible to get 3.75% for 30 yr fixed. 2)The rate may go up after QE2.
But I was wrong by saying the rate will go only as high as 4.375% to 4.5%.
For the current market, I think the rate should go back to the rate 4.5% pretty soon. If we are on track, we may get this rate during the 1st two weeks of Jan.
I will update the rate trend after we have new data.
Some good news: Capital Economics says that the yield on the 10-Yr T Note could fall back to 2.5% as the US economic recovery ultimately disappoints and deflation fears return.
Let's wait and see.