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If History Repeats Itself
August 21st, 2011 12:29 AM

This Thursday, Bill Gross from PIMCO suggested
that the us may head to another recession
.
Personally, the possibility is over 75%.

For my blog readers, you guys are more interested
in the mortgage rates. Do you remember that two years
ago I mentioned 4% interest rate for 30 yr fixed,
a lot of people though it's unbelievable. But it hit
that rates a few times now.

And today, I had an alumni reader asked my opinion
about the rates again. Here is what I thought:
1)30 yr fixed rate will go below 4.0%.
2)15 Yr fixed rate will be around 3.0%.
3)Those who refinanced to 5/1ARM may consider to
change back to fixed again because the fixed rate
is so low and close to 5/1ARM rates.

Did you guys remember in 2007, for about two months,
5/1 ARM rate is very close to 30 yr fixed rate. And we
went to the recession. One of the worst ones.

And recently, ARM rates head higher, fixed goes lower.
Will the history repeat itself? Will we have another
recession? And will my predict be correct again?

I don't suggest you guys to wait. The current level is
very good. And you will be more comfortable to refi
at this level to wait for lower rates, if any.

Even for this prediction happens, it will be a few months
away.


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on August 21st, 2011 12:29 AMPost a Comment

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