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May 20th, 2018 10:53 PM
If you want to refinance Rental ARM loans, we still have good rates. Here are a few samples:
1)Cash-out 300k loan to $650k loan, the 7/1 ARM rate is 4.875%.

2)$400k loan, 5/1 ARM 4.5%; 7/1 ARM 4.75% with no closing cost.
$300k loan, for $1000 closing cost with  5/1 ARM 4.5%; 7/1 ARM 4.75% rate.

The above rates are still much better than reset rate of 5%.

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 20th, 2018 10:53 PMLeave a Comment

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The 2018 forecast was cut to $1.667 trillion from April's forecast of $1.69 trillion. In 2019, Fannie is now projecting $1.67 trillion of originations, down from its prior forecast of $1.686 trillion.

30 yr fixed interest rates are expected over 4.5% for 2018 and 2019.

"We remain confident that, despite a first-quarter hiccup, economic growth will pick up through the rest of 2018. There are signs that consumer spending is poised to strengthen in the months ahead, and we believe recent fiscal policy actions are likely to contribute to growth this year," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan in a press release.

"Come 2019, however, we expect the fiscal boost to fade, and we adjusted our forecast lower accordingly. Meanwhile, housing's upward grind should continue, despite a lackluster first quarter. We expect home sales to post modest gains both this year and next, as prices rise and affordability declines amid low for-sale inventory."

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 17th, 2018 12:41 PMLeave a Comment

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May 15th, 2018 6:05 PM
The bonds closed at 3.129 on 05/25/2011. And 30 yr fixed rate was indeed around 4.5% during that period of time. But the story was different then. The ARM rate was very low around 2011-2013. In May 2011, ARM rate around 2.5%(conforming loan), so even though the 30 yr fixed rate was high, borrowers are taking ARM loans, but now 5/1 ARM rate is around 3.875% to 4%. Totally different scenarios.

Some industry news.
1)Lenders for the solar systems will make more money because of the new requirement from state of California for the solar of the new homes.
2)Though interest rate is higher, builder confidence level highest during the last 4 months
3)Atlanta home price up, listing down
4)Houston area home price hits the record level.

More news tomorrow

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 15th, 2018 6:05 PMLeave a Comment

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May 14th, 2018 9:25 AM
1)Charlotte home prices keep rising

2)Baltimore home prices continue to rise in April

3)12 cities where home purchasing power is in danger
The cities are:
Cleveland, OH
Columbus OH
Jacksonville, Fla
Charlotte, NC
Las Vega.

I copied the above from the mortgage magazine. Charlotte, NC price is rising, the affordability is decreasing.

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 14th, 2018 9:25 AMLeave a Comment

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May 13th, 2018 11:09 PM
I started working on the Dow numbers, one bank stock performance(WFC), SP 500, And 30 Yr fixed interest Rates and 5/1 ARM rate.  I am still working on it. It might take some time.
And I do not know whether this is useful. But at least this is worth reading.

The link is here:
Just finished the Dow and WFC from 2000 to 2002.  I will add more data a little bit everyday.

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 13th, 2018 11:09 PMLeave a Comment

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May 10th, 2018 9:40 AM

One of my friends asked to get some energy ETF. According to him, the sector rotation should be good for energy stocks now. And another friend asked me to watch CTL, that one should be ok and also the dividend is over 10%. Should I buy it or not? Hard to resist the temptation. It was $17.5 when my friends recommended. It is $19.5 today.

But I am still familiar with bank stocks and Builder stocks. Sold LGIH at $71.x last week, and purchased back at $61.7 today. I think I did good on this one. Will do weekly/monthly trading on this one for fun.

My ultimate goal is buy/hold SP 500 index funds. And hold it for at least 30 years. And build the portfolio to certain level, and spend the rest of the other money. And will use the dividend income from KO/T and bank stock dividends as income if I decide to retire. And hold the index funds for a long long time.

Still life is better without trading stocks too much.

Finished another 10 miles this morning, with 8 miles the pace around 7:50. I did not try to hard for the next 2-3 weeks, and just check the heart rate under 150. That's my goal for the marathon race. I need to keep the heart rate under 150 for the first 20 miles, then race afterwards. Hopefully it works fine for the mountain to beach marathon race.

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 10th, 2018 9:40 AMLeave a Comment

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May 8th, 2018 10:00 AM
Normally non-bank lenders could not do helocs for the last a few years, and now Fannie Mae said that it is ok, though the rate is higher now. At least it is good for the lenders who can provide piggy back loans with low down payment.

Wells Fargo was fined again for the fake accounts. Warren Buffett said that he still trusts the bank and CEO Tim Sloan. I am an investor, and I have the complicated feelings about the class actions, and the stock performance.

I watched two stocks this year, SHAK and LGIH. SHAK was up $10 last Friday. LGIH was up $5 this morning and was down $2 at this moment. Both companies have good potential, but the volatility level is big, compared to the other stocks, especially LGIH. I went to the Shake Shack store in Santa Monica last weekend. The line was indeed very long, and I ended up eating at another food store.

Housing confidence still high, though the price keeps going up and affordability level was a little bit lower. We still expect the price will go up 4% year over year, at least keep up with the inflation level.

Warren Buffett still likes KO. I think his dividend income is good enough. For me I think I would rather own SP500 than Ko at this moment. May switch the stock sometime this year when the overall market is down.

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 8th, 2018 10:00 AMLeave a Comment

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The RE still pretty good. Got two purchase loans Friday, and one Monday. So the demand is still strong. And also, there is news that 30 yr fixed interest rates are "expected" to stay at the current level for some time. Let's check a few months later.

Some borrowers asked why lenders needs K1 for the Tax returns. Normally K1 shows on the schedule E of the tax return. Please check the link below:

Basically for investors, you will receive k1 when you have certain ownership in a company. And you will report your share of interest through schedule E. And the entity will file 1065S tax returns. 

But if you buy an ETF, you will get a K1 as well. And on the K1 it will show your ownership of 0.000015% or something like that, the lender will ask such K1 as well. 

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 7th, 2018 10:30 PMLeave a Comment

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As I said yesterday, I would spend more time on the researches(other than reading Fannie Mae guidelines). The fed two day meeting ends this afternoon. And Here is what we know about what the Fed thinks:

1)The Fed will not hike rates today.
2)The Fed is on track to hike rates at the next meeting.
3)Fed is on tract for the balance sheet tapering(selling bonds)
4)The Fed is aware of potential future impacts from any trade wars
5)The Fed expects inflation to gradually increase

The current bonds is at 2.97% today. Once the bonds stays above 2.95 level, then the recent 2018 higher interest rate will be a floor for the rest of the year.

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 2nd, 2018 9:38 AMLeave a Comment

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May 1st, 2018 10:21 PM

I plan to write some articles for the following topics, some of you might be interested.
1)What will be the rate trend in the new 5 years? When will Fed stop increasing the rate.

2)The history of the Fed Rate in the last 20 years. What were the mortgage rates (Just 5/1 ARM and 30 yr fixed) then? How the bank stocks, builder stocks performed when the Fed hiked/lowered the rates.

Will add more topics later on.

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Posted by Eric Fang on May 1st, 2018 10:21 PMLeave a Comment

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April 25th, 2018 9:07 AM
We can do multi-family loans now(more than 4 units), the rate is kind of ok. I just checked one for my clients, 5 unit rental refi, the rate is 4.7% for 5/1 ARM, with 5-4-3-2-1 pre-payment penalty. And borrower will pay all the closing cost. For Multi-family loans, the appraisal fees are high, should be around $3000. The loan application fee around $2000. Total closing cost is around $7000 for most of the loans.

So when we compare this rate with residential loans, residential loans rate is so much better

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Posted by Eric Fang on April 25th, 2018 9:07 AMLeave a Comment

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April 23rd, 2018 12:51 PM
I updated today's rate on my website. It is about 0.125% higher for most of the  program. But since the bond is at 2.95 now. So I personally think the rate will go back a little bit in the next 3 weeks.

Purchased the book: Reclaiming Conversation: The Power of Talk in a Digital Age  I will get the book by tonight. Hopefully I will finish it this week, and then I can pass to my daughter so that  she can read it.

Normally I will read books for about 5 -7 hours per week.  I did not read as much recently. The main reason was that I was distracted by one of the rental property. The property was damaged by the previous tenants, so I have to have the  whole house painted, and all the carpet would be replaced. And at some point I was undecided whether I need to sell the property or keep it as rental. If I sell, still not many bargains on the market for the purchase. Anyway, the painting work started over the weekend. And we would finalize on the carpet this week as well.

I listened to a book  recently(Did not purchase yet): Skin in the Game by Nassim Taleb.
Since I am a real estate professional, normally it is so easy for me to make recommendation for my clients. But this time is different, since I have "Skin in the Game", my decision making seems like not right sometimes. So I think what would I do if my clients asked my the advice. So I handled it as the "third person". I would make the property as clean and presentable as possible, would sell the property if the sale price is good, otherwise will keep it as the rental. And then the whole process becomes easier.

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Posted by Eric Fang on April 23rd, 2018 12:51 PMLeave a Comment

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It is still within the trading range. And I still believe bonds will not go beyond 3% any time soon.

Had a little bit cough for about 10 days now, Started running again since Tuesday. I met a friend this morning and he asked me how I felt. I told him that I only cough when I stopped. So it was ok. I did run an interval on Tuesday, tempo of 6 miles Thursday, and I managed to run 19 miles today. Though the pace was not great, but the average of 8:04 minutes per mile is not bad.

Helped one client to get the house. Sometimes, I think it is the team efforts. I tried my best to have no loan contingencies. Anyway, the seller liked the offer.

Stated income loans are back. I almost started one application by using borrower's assets to qualify for the loan. But the borrowers needs to have lots of assets to qualify. Sometimes, I doubted how the lenders design this system. Basically, you will need more than 5 million assets in order to qualify a reasonable loan. And who needs such a loan if they have so much assets. And my borrowers said that they would prefer to payoff the balance.

There are more other cases as well. I just got one loan approved with the young couple retired earlier. And we used dividend income to qualify.  We do need to qualify with two years dividend income. And as expected, the loan was approved.

Registered another marathon for 2019. I will run Carlsbad Marathon again. I think I can do better next year since I had more hill trainings now. Let's see. I always used Carlsbad Marathon to celebrate my birthday.

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Posted by Eric Fang on April 21st, 2018 1:25 PMLeave a Comment

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April 11th, 2018 10:02 PM
Seems like my sense is good. The offer was accepted, and it went into escrow. And I also found  that I have another client is on the same street, just across the street.

Will have to work on the loan now, try my best to get it closed smoothly.

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Posted by Eric Fang on April 11th, 2018 10:02 PMLeave a Comment

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April 10th, 2018 11:41 AM
First, I got a great race this weekend in San Francisco. It is very beautiful course, though a little bit hilly. But I enjoyed and had great time with friends.

I completed a few purchase loans recently, all with very good rates, the ARM 5/1 ARM or 7/1ARM rates around 3.375% to 3.5% with no closing cost, depends on the market, and the loan amount and good LTV. And almost all of those loans we do not have loan contingency any more. I know it sound crazy, but the RE market is so crazy in the bay area now. That's how the market works.

 Yesterday, I helped another clients with the pre-approval. I talked to both the listing agent, and the selling agent, the borrower agreed to increase the bids, and I hopefully he can get the house. Last time, after talking to the listing agent, I told the borrower that he could get the offer accepted, and indeed he got the house. For this purchase yesterday, I think the borrower has 70% of the chance getting the house, but he will definitely get the counter offer. And the final decision will be based on how much higher the final price will be.

Good luck, my borrower, I know you can get the house if you are willing to. And hopefully you will get it.

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Posted by Eric Fang on April 10th, 2018 11:41 AMLeave a Comment

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April 6th, 2018 12:24 PM
Still we do not have to watch it everyday. Though I do have it, since I check the bonds level for the mortgage rates. That's my job. Then I will check the stock prices.

The bonds still kind of hard to cross 3% level. The recent retreat is good thing for the market(actually), good for builder stocks as well. LGIH was up again, can not believe it reached $57 level beginning of March. And now it is over $70.

Job creation slowed in March,  mainly because of the weather, or the stock market, or whatever. I think the growth might slow a little bit in the next a few months.

Here are the reports on the market today:

Just 103,000 jobs were created in March, much lower than the 175,000 expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. February's report was revised higher to 326,000 new jobs from 313,000, while January was revised lower to 176,000 from 239,000. The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent.

Average hourly earnings came in at 0.3 percent, higher than expectations. Annual wage growth ticked up to 2.7 percent in March from 2.6 percent for the 12 months ending in February. The first quarter of 2018 also saw higher job growth than the same period last year, as an average of 202,000 new jobs were created in the first three months of 2018 compared to 177,000 in 2017. Overall, despite the disappointing headline number, there was some positive news in the report.

In housing news, home prices continued to push higher in February due in part to the ongoing theme of limited housing supply on the markets. Research firm CoreLogic reported that home prices, including distressed sales, rose 6.7 percent from February 2017 to February 2018 and were up 1 percent from January to February. Looking ahead, CoreLogic forecasts that home prices will rise 4.7 percent from February 2018 to February 2019.

Extreme volatility continued in the markets this week, as uncertainty regarding tariffs and a trade war with China caused wild swings in Stocks. Mortgage Bonds were stuck in a sideways trading pattern, while home loan rates remain historically attractive.

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Posted by Eric Fang on April 6th, 2018 12:24 PMLeave a Comment

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The rate is 4.75% for 600k loan. This is a great rate for the rental property. And the closing is for 18 days only.

And two weeks ago, I closed a Jumbo 5/1 ARM with 3.375% for no closing cost at all. That loan was closed with no loan contingency, no appraisal contingency. And I am working on other pre-approvals with no loan contingencies as well.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 28th, 2018 10:21 PMLeave a Comment

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March 27th, 2018 1:06 PM
Yes, the rate is getting better when the stock market corrected again. I think I am getting used to the up and downs. And I will not purchase any stocks in the near future(except the monthly contribution to SP 500 index). But still the market correction is good for the long term. If you want to keep the stocks for 10 years, you would want to purchase it low. right?

Back to California last night, I added jumbo purchase rate on my website.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 27th, 2018 1:06 PMLeave a Comment

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The finish time was 1:40:16. About 7 minutes from my best time. It was simply too hot this morning, I had to slow down. But it was indeed a good experience of running in the southern states. I planned to run Houston sometime. But I think it will be humid as well. Maybe I can just have fun, and do not even think about any PRs.

During the race, I was thinking about the running strategies. It would be much better if I can slow down at the beginning, so I would not push my heart rate up too much too early. Anyway, another half done. Two more in the next 5 weeks.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 25th, 2018 10:47 PMLeave a Comment

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March 22nd, 2018 7:22 AM
I have the best rate of 3.625% to 3.75% for 5/1 ARM based on loan amount. Please email me the scenario if you are interested.

Stock market is down a little bit, which is not a bad thing. The market needs a little bit correction. And also, the interest rate needs stay a little bit low. A I said before the bonds is hard to cross 3% level, until the people get used to it. But we need to wait at least two quarters for the new home build numbers, whether they are affected or not. But from the data I have, the new loan application from the new development is good. Though the building permit was down, but the single family was ok. And if there is a housing crisis this time, it is the short of inventory.

Ran another 10 miles this morning. Will race new Orleans half marathon this weekend. Did not want to have a PR, but will enjoy the beautiful weather, nice food and jazz.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 22nd, 2018 7:22 AMLeave a Comment

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Basically, the residential housing "limited" steel. Steel frames accounted only less than 0.5% of the new SFR and 4% of multifamily buildings. See the article below:


The Trump administration's new tariffs on imported steel and aluminum may raise prices on a variety of consumer and commercial products, but will only put minimal strain on the housing industry.

The 25% tariff on steel and the 10% tariff on aluminum are more likely to be a concern for commercial and multifamily construction than the single-family sector, said Tim Rood, managing director at Situs and chairman of consulting firm The Collingwood Group.

"I think for single-family, imported steel and aluminum are going to contribute a small percentage to the home's cost, but when you talk about multifamily and commercial construction, it's substantially higher," said Rood.

But while the American Iron and Steel Institute estimates 43% of steel imports go to the construction industry, very little of it is used in residential construction. Steel frames accounted for less than 0.5% of new single-family houses and about 4% of multifamily buildings, according to Census Bureau estimates.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 15th, 2018 1:08 PMLeave a Comment

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March 15th, 2018 1:04 PM
That might be a good idea. Reno is no far away from California. And there are lots of jobs created there now. See the article I copied from Barron's:

RENO, Nev.—Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval had reason to beam and boast at a tech show here recently.

The city of 300,000 he affectionately calls “Silicon Bridge” for its proximity to San Francisco—about 218 miles—has emerged as a capital of big tech investments. From Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA) 5.8-million-square-foot Gigafactory and Apple’s (AAPL) sprawling new $4 million warehouse downtown, to’s(AMZN) 630,000-square-foot fulfillment center on the north end of town and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google expansion efforts, Reno is a case study of tech sprouting outside the two coasts.

“I’m extremely proud of our success story,” Sandoval told Barron’s, reveling in a region that has emerged from recession and is now revitalized. “Tesla and the state of Nevada continue to have a very successful relationship, one that I think is a model for how companies and states can work together for the public good.”

Gigafactory, a lithium-ion battery factory, has created thousands of jobs and brought billions of dollars of investment to Reno, says Ira Ehrenpreis, a longtime Tesla board member and managing partner at DBL Partners, a venture-capital firm known for shrewd investments and social consciousness.

The type of partnership that has bloomed in Nevada increasingly is in vogue in the heartland—a theme of the recent Blueprint conference, at which Sandoval spoke, and a cause that AOL co-founder Steve Case has tirelessly promoted through his Rise of the Rest fund, a nationwide effort to work closely with entrepreneurs in emerging start-up ecosystems.

So-called flyover states have become valuable go-to territory for tech’s royalty in search of tax incentives, inexpensive land, and enough talent to fill thousands of jobs. Most of all, they offer a respite from clogged roadways, skyrocketing housing costs, and round-the-clock work schedules that have dogged workers in Silicon Valley and portions of the East Coast.

Software company Breadware relocated from Santa Barbara, Calif., to Reno to get closer to Silicon Valley and a thriving early-stage investment community while achieving work-life balance for its employees, says Chief Executive Officer David Price, who also considered Boulder, Colo., and Seattle as possible destinations.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 15th, 2018 1:04 PMLeave a Comment

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February's volume of mortgage loan applications for newly constructed homes rose both year-over-year and month-to-month, continuing the momentum from a surprisingly strong showing in January.

New home applications increased by 3% compared with January and by 4.6% compared with February 2017, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The data is not seasonally adjusted.

"Brisk activity in January likely pulled forward some buyer activity," Lynn Fisher, the MBA's vice president of research and economics, said in a press release.

"Combined, applications in January and February were up by 11% relative the same period last year. On a seasonally adjusted annual basis, our February estimate of new home sales based on mortgage applications came in at 632,000, ahead of the January Census estimate of 593,000 new homes sales, and back on trend following an uptick from hurricane-related rebuilding."

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 14th, 2018 10:54 AMLeave a Comment

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Yes, I ran 11 miles on the trail this morning. The elevation was from 174 ft to 960 ft, so I had to walk a few times. But my heart rate stayed around 145 when I ran uphill. The downhill was steep too, I still did not know how to run downhill yet. Maybe I need to learn in the future.

I loved the experience so far. I decided to continue the run each Sunday morning for the next 8 weeks.

See the elevation below.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 11th, 2018 4:33 PMLeave a Comment

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March 10th, 2018 12:20 PM
We managed to rush out two loan docs this week for the purchases. They all have very challenge schedules. And got another loan Friday for 21 days closing, and I got very good rate for them. 30 Yr fixed for 500k loan with the rate 4.75%. This is almost primary home rate now. Anyway, I might have to work during my vacation.

Got another solid morning run today. I challenged myself for the training. The average pace was 7:43, but most of the paces were under 7:30.

Here are the paces:


LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
Also, I copied something from a book I read, sorry, this is in Chinese:

Have a good weekend.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 10th, 2018 12:20 PMLeave a Comment

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March 9th, 2018 9:33 AM
I just locked another purchase loan for my client, this is a jumbo rental purchase. I locked the loan for 4.75% with 0.36% lender credit. 4.875% with 0.8% lender credit. The loan program is actually 30 yr fixed. This is indeed a very good rate for this loan amount for a rental property.


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Posted by Eric Fang on March 9th, 2018 9:33 AMLeave a Comment

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March 8th, 2018 10:48 PM

I just locked and closed one 5/1 ARM 3.75% a few days, then when I locked another one, the rate became 3.875%. And then another client wanted to get 3.875%, it went up to 4%. But I told him that we can wait, and we should be able to get 3.875% again. All the loan amounts were lower than $453k. And it was for no closing cost at all.

Signed for New Orleans Half Marathon 2 weeks later. Not sure about the weather there. Hopefully I can have a good time there.

Also, I did great for the recent marathon trainings. Tempo run paces are around 7:25 now, speed workout are all under 7:00. I think I might need to increase the weekly mileage soon.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 8th, 2018 10:48 PMLeave a Comment

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March 5th, 2018 10:21 PM
There are more and more purchase loans now, especially for some more first time buyers. It is never too late for purchasing the primary.

But still we need to know something important for the qualification. I got a loan over the weekend. But the borrower has only one credit card transaction on the credit report, so it will make the transaction hard. Originally I quoted 3.75% for 7/1ARM with no closing cost at all. But after the credit check, the best rate will be 4.25% now, and I have only one lender for this jumbo loan. Another option would be lower the loan amount to higher balance loan, this means that the borrower would have to put more down payment.

As for my running, I think I ran too fast for the speed workout. I need to slow down a little bit to about 7 minute pace.

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Posted by Eric Fang on March 5th, 2018 10:21 PMLeave a Comment

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February 27th, 2018 12:03 PM
I updated today's 15 yr fixed rate to 4% now, for no closing cost for $400k loan amount. It is up from yesterday's 3.875%. Normally the bonds market will pause for sometime around 3% level. Let's wait and see what is going to happen for the next a few weeks.

Finished the book "On The Road"  last weekend. Will start a few more books. Read some more books in Chinese recently. Maybe that's easy for me, but still I will pick up some books in English.

Have very solid training for Mountain to Beach Marathon. Since I did not run the Huntington Beach marathon because of family emergency, I have more than enough training for M2B. I think I might be able to PR a few minutes this time. I train for 8 minutes PR, hopefully I can get 3-5 minutes faster. 

Planned to have a short interval run this morning on the overpass. Did not feel well after the 2nd run. So I changed to an easy run instead. Will do another set tonight. Hopefully it is going to be ok. Injury free is more important for me for the marathon training.

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Posted by Eric Fang on February 27th, 2018 12:03 PMLeave a Comment

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February 22nd, 2018 5:23 PM
Just copy it here for the future reference:

Conforming(<=453,100)                       High Balance(>$453,100 & <=679,650)
30Yr. Fixed  4.375% APR 4.375%      
30Yr. Fixed  4.625%  APR 4.625%
15Yr. Fixed  3.875% APR 3.875%      15Yr. Fixed  4.125%  APR 4.125%         
7/1 ARM      4.000% APR 4.504%         7/1 ARM  4.125%  APR 4.504%

5/1 ARM      3.875% APR 4.504%         5/1 ARM  4.125%  APR 4.504%

30 Yr fixed   4.500% APR 4.500%
7/1 ARM      4.000% APR 4.504%
5/1 ARM      3.875% APR 4.504%(Locked one for 3.5% with purchase).

I spent more time for running now while the rates are up. I did have some quality training recently. I finished 6 miles tempo on the hills today(so far, the tempo paces are all under 7:30mins/mile for this training segment):


LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal

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Posted by Eric Fang on February 22nd, 2018 5:23 PMLeave a Comment

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