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January 16th, 2020 11:28 AM
I know WFC was a bad investment. The stock price was back to the same level as 12 months ago. But I still picked some yesterday.

I purchased at $48.12. Then if the dividend stay the same, I can get around 4.25%. For the next 12 months, if the price goes back to $50.12, then I will make 2/48.12=4.15%, another 4.15%, then my total return would be 8.4%, not bad for a stock. And if 5 years later, as long as the dividend is ok, and the stock is $58.12, I can have 8% for the next 5 years.

I know it could be worse, what if the stock goes down. Yes, if the stock is lower, then my dividend income would be higher. Last year , I picked up some AT&T dividend at 8%. And the stock went up 37%, so my total return around 45%. Do I worry about this one? Not at this level. Same as WFC. And still I am very conservative. 6-8% annual return would be good enough. I have quite good income on dividends. I know I am different, very conservative. But do not assume my return was always low. I got 45% last year, still no tech stocks.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on January 16th, 2020 11:28 AMLeave a Comment

January 16th, 2020 11:21 AM
If I tell you that the trading cost for the property is more than 5% or 6%, do you agree? Here is my explanation:

If you purchase a property for 500k, and sell it for 700k. Your profits are 200k. And the agent commission is 5% of the sale price, which is 35k. Then for the 200k, you paid 35k, and your cost is 17.5%. Is it right?

And that's why we normally we do not buy/sell the property too often. Better to keep it longer.

Similar thing for trading stocks. If you purchase the stock for $100, then sell for $120. Then purchase for $120, sell $140. And buy $140, sell $160. Your profits are so different from buy at $100 and sell at $160. Every time, we sold the investment, we will pay the tax on the capital gain, either short term or long term. One thing you might argue is that we are much smarter than the market. I can buy $100 then sell at $120. Then buy back at $110, sell at $130. etc. I know I am not that smart. I used to trade MA at $100. I made around 15k, but I lost those trading shares since I purchased at $100, and sold at $120, and when it was $130, I thought the stock was too expensive. Then I could not "brave" enough to buy them back. And MA is $318 today.

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Posted by Eric Fang on January 16th, 2020 11:21 AMLeave a Comment

January 14th, 2020 5:11 PM
You would be lucky if you have a mentor guiding you. For me, I like listen to my friends, and my friends are kind of my mentors.

According to the book, The Second Mountain(Chapter 11, What Mentors Do):
1. Good mentors coach you through the various decisions of life, such as where to go to graduate school or what jobs to take. Good mentors teach you the tacit wisdom embedded in any craft.

2. Mentors will teach you what excellence looks like.

3. Mentors also teach how to deal with error.

4. Mentors teach how to embrace the struggle -- that the struggle is the good part.

5. The last thing a mentor does, of course, is send you out into the world and, in some sense, cut you off.

What do you think, my friends? Do you have a mentor in your life? I heard someone felt hurt when the mentor sent you out in the world. But this is very necessary for you to grow, right?

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Posted by Eric Fang on January 14th, 2020 5:11 PMLeave a Comment

January 14th, 2020 5:04 PM
It has been great so far. I ran a total of 89 miles so far this year, my goal is 6 miles per day. I gained about 10 lbs during my china/India trip, so I plan to lose those weights this month. And so far so good, I lost 6 pounds. And 4 more lbs to go.

I changed my schedules a little bit this year, go to bed around 10:30pm to 11pm; get up around 6:20am to 6:45am, then run a few miles(6-9 miles depends on how I feel). For the first a few days, I have the average pace of 9:30 min per mile. Now the pace is 9min. I plan to increase to 8:45min. I have not started interval/tempo running yet, will do so next week.

Originated about 5 million loans so far. Not bad for only nearly half month. I got the purchase interest rate around 2.8xx to 2.9xx for my clients, even though the credit scores are not perfect. And am doing a few refinances, for condos as well. The rate is around 3% for 7/1ARM (APR 3.7%) with no closing cost.

Finished one book: Zen and The Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. Will finish The Second Mountain soon.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on January 14th, 2020 5:04 PMLeave a Comment

The end of 2019 saw a strong economic market. According to the Commerce Department, household spending increased for long-lasting factory goods, which are good signs of economic growth. The fourth quarter saw an increase in the GDP from 2.1% on Dec. 20 to 2.3% on Dec. 23. A report from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that private domestic investment growth increased from -0.9% to -0.1%, and these are signs of a positive economic forecast.

The Federal Reserve was expecting a fourth-quarter flatline or decrease and was surprised to see the growth. The U.S.-China tariffs, as well as a slowing global economy, raised fears of sluggish growth. While still being cautious, the Federal Reserve has given the U.S. economy a favorable grade.

Manufacturing is in recovery and will help to boost the economy in 2020, especially after the General Motors strike ended. However, forecasters are predicting a softening of economic growth for 2020 as it's an election year, the trade deficit continues, and decrease in global economics continues. A resolution of the U.S.-China trade war would help to boost business spending and create a positive outlook for consumers.

Keep a watch for the first and second quarter of 2020 to see if the economy grows, recedes, or remains the same.


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Posted by Eric Fang on January 10th, 2020 3:53 PMLeave a Comment

January 10th, 2020 3:49 PM
1)

Property data firm CoreLogic predicts that housing prices will continue to rise, maybe as much as 5.6% by late summer or early fall, which is a jump from 3.5% from last year.


2)

The chief economist for the real estate brokerage Redfin, Daryl Fairweather says that housing inventory is tight and that will drive competition and pricing for existing homes, especially for lower- to midrange-priced houses.


3)

According to the National Association of Home Builders, housing starts and building permits are increasing and builder confidence is at a 20-month high. Increased construction can help alleviate the shortage of homes for sale. However, most construction is on higher-priced and luxury homes, so the housing market for the lower end will remain tight.

4)

Millennials make up over 46% of mortgage originations, up from 43% last year, according to data from Realtor.com. The challenge for many of these first-time buyers is low inventory and increased prices. The millennial generation is looking more for community, and experts predict they will move to the suburbs or outskirts of metropolitan areas. Many of the people in this generation work from home and don't need to live in the city where their job is, so living on the outskirts is more affordable for them, and they can safely raise their children.


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on January 10th, 2020 3:49 PMLeave a Comment

January 6th, 2020 11:58 AM
Please email me or call me for the rate quotes. Phone: 650-483-9278. Rental Refi rate is better as well.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on January 6th, 2020 11:58 AMLeave a Comment

January 3rd, 2020 1:17 PM
The tension with Iran disturbed the market, and the interest rate is lower. Please email me or call me if you have the most recent rate reset or want to refinance the rental properties.

Also, major banks begin to lower the rate starting next Monday, so you will expect the 7/1ARM rate lower for the refinance(just a little bit lower).

I started new schedules this year. Like go to bed 11pm, get up 6am, then work for 2 two hours and run for an hour. It works well for the past a few days. Hopefully I can keep this schedule.

Read an interesting quote from Warren Buffett regarding reading. According to him, reading is like "compound interest". If you see the difference after a few years reading, like 10 or more years later.

We stayed at an India friends home while we visited Bangalore. We talked about the financial markets(He was in USA before, and went back to India since 2006). And he asked me about how onion is important to the poor people in India. I told him yes. I told me that I read one book before, and it said onion was very important to the poor people's life. And that's why there were protests from the poor when the onion price went up in 2019. And also Indira Gandhi wore the Onion Ring as the necklace at her campaign.

I had a terrific year of stock investment for 2019. The return was 45%. And I did not do any trades.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on January 3rd, 2020 1:17 PMLeave a Comment

January 1st, 2020 12:04 AM

As we enter the first day of 2020, we would like to
express our gratitude for all your support in the past
year.

In the year of 2019, we successfully embraced the  changes
and had a great year of loan originations. Our closing
volume increased 200% than that of 2018. And most
importantly, we helped our clients to get those best level
interest rates for 7/1ARM, and other loan programs.

As we look forward to another year, we continue to reinforce
our commitment to the mortgage business. We are looking forward
to working together to provide the best service and rates to our clients.

Let's start the new year with a new outlook, and make it
the best year possible.

Let's Celebrate the New Year of 2020.

Sincerely,

Eric Fang


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on January 1st, 2020 12:04 AMLeave a Comment

December 31st, 2019 11:51 PM
I completed my 8th Marathon on Dec 8, 2019. The finish time is: 3:34:39.
The 8 marathons are:
 
Jan 20, 2019. Calsbad Marathon. Finish Time 3:39:17
April 21, 2019. Nanjing Niushoushan Marathon. Finish Time 4:14:24
Big Sur Marathon. April 28,2019. Finished 3:59:22
Vancouver Marathon. May 5,2019. Finished 3:43:57
San Francisco Marathon July 28, 2019. Finished 3:36:52
Berlin Marathon. Sep 29, 2019.  Finished 3:38:55
Chicago Marathon. Oct 13, 2019.  Finished 3:34:15.
California International Marathon. Dec 8, 2019.  Finished 3:34:39.

My best time was 3:20 in 2018. I have no plan to run faster in 2020.  I plan to run London Marathon in 2021.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on December 31st, 2019 11:51 PMLeave a Comment

The author talked about the life after giving up his dream to pursue Indian philosophy, and became a journalist and backed to normal life, "Because he's given up, the surface of life was comfortable for him. He worked reasonably hard, was easy to get along with and, except for an occasional glimpse of inner emptiness shown in some short stories he wrote at the  time, his days passed quite usually".

My comments: it is not bad to enjoy a normal life. And also, in another word, he is getting older.

The night they stayed at a cabin in the park: "We talk with no need to hurry. This is the oldest entrance to the park. It was used before there were any automobiles. They talk about changes that have taken place over the years, adding a dimension to what we see around us, and it builds to a kind of beautiful thing-- this town, this couple and the years that have gone by here".

Yes, the other dimension is "Time". And time flies.

And you will still feel the beauty of the nature when "I am conscious of the sounds of the river rushing past boulders below and a fragrance in the night wind".

And you imagine that there is such a beautiful picture there.


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on December 3rd, 2019 2:11 PMLeave a Comment

December 1st, 2019 9:40 PM
I can only finish 34 books this year. The main reason was that I was too busy with my loans. I do not think it is worth it. I would rather read more books for 2020.

I finished Chapter 11 for Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values. Some other people might be interested in the philosophical odyssey from this book. I am kind of more interested in his trip from MN to San Francisco. At least after finish the first 11 chapters, I know something about North Dakota and South Dakota, Minnesota etc. 

For Londoners, I just try to see how the London people eat, live, enjoy the city life, and also struggle. We can also related their life to that of LA, NY, Chicago. And why people still love those big cities.

And yes, I love to read any books from David Brooks, I bought the book: the second mountain first, and next year, I will read "The road to Character". He is one of my favorite Columnist from The New York Times. You can read his column here: https://www.nytimes.com/column/david-brooks.

I like another  Columnist from The new York Times, Thomas Friedman as well. I finished a few books from his as well. Like, the World is Flat. And Thank You for Being Late. Etc.

Here is the book list for 2019: www.ericfang.com/2019BookList

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on December 1st, 2019 9:40 PMLeave a Comment

1. Housing Starts are improving. This is especially true for single-family homes, which have risen for five consecutive months. This trend suggests anticipated buying demand.

2.The labor market remains strong. Rates don't buy homes, jobs do. 50+ year low unemployment at 3.6%, coupled with rising wages makes for a wonderful housing backdrop.

3. Low home loan rates for longer than most expect. Rates don't buy homes, but they definitely help more people participate in buying a home. With inflation running beneath the Fed target of 2.00% for the foreseeable future, there should be no upward pressure on home loan rates.

But still do not expect the mortgage rates goes back to the Sep/Oct range any time soon. The main reason is we do not see a recession on the horizon.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 22nd, 2019 11:13 AMLeave a Comment

Here is the link: Some of the World’s Richest Brace for a Major Stock Sell-Off

Here is the summary:
1)They hold 25% cash now
2)They think the market will have a significant drop in 2020

Mainly they are concerned about:
1)trade war wit China
2)US Election in 2020
3)investment environment is more challenging than 5 years ago.

 



Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 12th, 2019 3:57 PMLeave a Comment

November 8th, 2019 4:04 PM
I just finished the book:  Talking to Strangers, by Malcolm Gladwell. I would highly recommend this book.

From this book, you will find a lot of interesting case studies. The Stanford swimmer Brock Turner vs Emily Doe,  The Sandra Bland case, etc. And you will definitely learn something from this book. If you are interested in this book, you can start with the book reviews first.

I study English for one hour per day(formally), I know it sounds weird. I can talk to my clients, my friends. But if I want to talk more about the culture, more of the deep conversation. I need to spend more time on it. I think I can do it for the next 5-10 years. One day will not make the difference, 1 year might not. But 10 years will sure make the difference. I know it by the running. I could not run 3 miles the first day when I planned to lose weight, and 6 years later, I can almost finish one marathon every weekend.

And also from the learning English, I am kind of over the hill now(over 50s), so I will accept the fact about that. And from another lesson, the two hosts talked about the making of money, I echoed with them, what's the purpose of making money if you have no time to enough the life the money can bring to you. Yes, I will slow down, work less, and travel more, and read more. Stay tuned.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 8th, 2019 4:04 PMLeave a Comment

Home loan rates are at the same level they were at back on July 31st when the Fed cut rates for the first time in 10 years.

A word of caution: long-term rates like mortgages can move up very fast, and it is in a complacent environment like today when things suddenly change. Using history as an example, the 10-year Note yield has traded at 1.40% or lower on three separate occasions in the past seven years. In the two previous times -- 2012 and 2016 -- the 10-year yield quickly spiked to 3% and 2.75% respectively in just six months. This sharp move higher in yield also weighed on home loans, which also rose sharply.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 8th, 2019 10:32 AMLeave a Comment

This past week the Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds Rate for the third time this year, by .25%. Along with the rate cut, the Fed released a statement that suggested a "pause" in further cuts, but stated they will be ready to act again should "slowing global conditions" continue or if inflation declines further.

Speaking of inflation, it is important to remind ourselves that the Fed rate cut does not affect home loan rates. Home loan rates are slightly higher than they were right before the Fed started cutting rates in July. The main driver of long-term rates is inflation. If inflation goes up, long-term rates go up. The opposite is also true.

With that said, here's an important quote from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday: "I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that's persistent before we would consider raising rates to address inflation concerns." This means that the Fed is not likely to hike rates anytime soon, and long-term rates should not go too high too soon either because there is no threat of high inflation at this time.

Bottom line: home loan rates are near three-year lows and this week's modest price improvement can be quickly erased should good news regarding U.S./China emerge.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 1st, 2019 1:44 PMLeave a Comment

Lots of people asked whether we have lower rates again.

First, the mortgage rate is different from the Fed rate. Fed rate changes only a few times a year, the mortgage rate changes every day.

Second, this year, the Fed Rate cuts are preventive strategy. It plans to prevent the economy enter into the recession. If the Fed strategy works, then the interest rate will go higher, not go lower.

Third, Lender always have the pipeline management issues. Whenever they have enough loans in the pipeline, they would increase the interest rate(not lower) so that they can complete the loans.

Fourth, lenders/banks plan to have a little bit higher rate so that their profit margin would be better, so that their earnings can improve a little bit.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on October 30th, 2019 10:27 PMLeave a Comment

Here are 3 reasons why:
  1. Solid corporate earnings and future positive guidance from many public companies were a pleasant surprise for many who were bracing for a far more disappointing outlook. As a result, Stocks moved higher last week at the expense of Bonds and home loan rates.

  2. U.S./China trade deal optimism continues. It's been slightly over a week since the U.S. and China came to a "handshake" trade agreement, and all signs are pointing to the deal being papered and signed in the coming weeks. This once uncertain event has become quite positive, and was another reason for Bonds to move lower and rates higher.

  3. A "Brexit" deal, where the U.K. will leave the European Union, has been drafted. The deal still has to pass a Parliamentary vote and carries some hurdles. But much like the U.S./China story, Brexit has gone from hopeless to a pretty good chance of a fix in a short amount of time. Once again, this is another uncertain event removed, and the renewed optimism helped Stocks and hurts home loan rates.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on October 18th, 2019 10:05 AMLeave a Comment

October 17th, 2019 12:30 PM
With much surprise and delight, new home sales jumped in August 2019. According to the Commerce Department, there was a 7.1% increase with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000 units last month. This is great news for businesses involved in the housing industry, from construction workers to real estate agents. Most of the sales were single-family homes in the South and Western states.

Perhaps due to mortgage rates dropping, building permits and housing starts were at a whopping 12-year high in August. In addition, home resales rose to one of the highest levels seen in over 17 months. All of this information is great news for the economy overall.

Many believe that this improvement in housing data means that the housing market is finally rebounding after the recession of 2007-2009 that hit so many homeowners and housing industry jobs hard.

Interestingly, home sales in the Northeast section of the country fell by nearly 6% and the Midwest fell around 3%. The Southern portion of the country saw a 6% increase in the month of August, while the West rose 16.5%.

In evidence of homes selling rather quickly, August's sales pace should only take a little over five months for houses to sell, which is down from July's number of nearly six months. In August, we saw only 326,000 new homes on the market which is the lowest it has been since September of 2018. It certainly appears that new home sales are overtaking resales, as nearly 63% were still under construction or haven't even been built yet.

With the Millennial generation ready to purchase homes, it is no surprise that new home sales are on the rise. This generation is looking for specifics of what they want in a home and can have a home built that fits their lifestyle. Let's see what happens for new home sales in September and the rest of 2019! 
 

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on October 17th, 2019 12:30 PMLeave a Comment

October 15th, 2019 10:19 PM

The finish time is 3:34:15. Not bad at all, given no sufficient training for the last 2 months. I have one more marathon this year. I will take it easy.

The interest rate went up recently. So I would recommend my borrowers to proceed with the best rate we can have now, then wait for any better chance of refinance in the future, if possible.


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on October 15th, 2019 10:19 PMLeave a Comment

October 8th, 2019 9:56 PM
I complete the Berlin Marathon last weekend 09/29/2019. The finish time is 3:38:55. Not bad since I did not have much training. The main reason was that I was too busy from June - August, mainly for the loans. I am happy with this result.

Please click the link for my running video at Berlin: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1I14B6UYDLOb2btRE_DQrgk17rSrJ3wOC

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on October 8th, 2019 9:56 PMLeave a Comment

September 20th, 2019 2:24 PM
This past week the Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds Rate for the second time this year, lowering the rate to 2.00%. Remember that the Fed Funds Rate is a short-term, overnight rate that has little effect on home loan rates. Home loan rates respond to the trading activity in Mortgage Bonds, which are influenced by the economic outlook and inflation expectations.

Not all Fed members were on board with the .25% rate cut. A few preferred not to cut rates while another wanted a bigger .50% cut.

Along with the Fed rate cut, here are three important takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference and the Monetary Policy Statement:
  1. There is no recession in sight. One of the fears in recent months and cause for home loan rates to decline this summer was the fear of a recession. Powell debunked the recession myth, which is the reason why they suggested the possibility of no more rate cuts in 2019... the U.S. economy is doing fine.
  2. The consumer is also alive and well. The main reason the U.S. economy won't slip into recession is because the U.S. consumer has never been more willing and able to spend money. Consumer spending makes up nearly two-thirds of U.S. economic growth (Gross Domestic Product), so a recession will not occur while the consumer remains confident.
  3. Exports have slowed. This was a negative point from the Fed statement. There are a couple reasons -- one being the uncertainty surrounding the U.S./China trade dispute. But there is another reason they have slowed, and it is because our exports are too expensive for other countries, because our U.S. dollar has strengthened against other global currencies. This is why the Fed will likely cut rates again, despite suggesting otherwise, to soften the U.S. dollar and make our exports cheaper to other countries.
After the Fed came and went, home loan rates actually ticked up slightly. Why? The U.S. economy is not slipping into a recession and the Fed will take measures, like cutting the overnight Fed Funds Rate, to prevent it from doing so. Think good news is bad news for home loan rates.     

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on September 20th, 2019 2:24 PMLeave a Comment

September 19th, 2019 11:35 PM
So far I registered the following marathons for 2020:

March , LA Marathon
May: Mountain to Beach
July: SF Marathon.
Still more to come.

Still need to finish the following three this year:

Berlin Marathon 09/28
Chicago Marathon 10/13
CIM(California International Marathon) 12/08/2019

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on September 19th, 2019 11:35 PMLeave a Comment

September 13th, 2019 8:06 PM
1. U.S./China Trade Dispute: In recent weeks both sides have played "nice" with tariffs being delayed by the U.S. and China opening markets. How this story goes, so will global economies, financial markets, and home loan rates. At the moment, there is no bigger story to track.

 

2. Tug of War: The push/pull action between slowing global economies and world central banks is at play. With economies slowing, central banks are cutting rates and introducing new financial stimulus to keep the economic expansion growing. If central banks are successful and economic growth reaccelerates, home loan rates will suffer further. The opposite is also true. 

3. The "Technical Picture": It has turned against home loan rates for now. Back on August 5, Mortgage Bonds hit a 2019 price high and have been unable to break above that price, and subsequently slipped lower creating a tough "ceiling of resistance" that Bonds will have to pierce in order for home loan rates to further improve

 


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on September 13th, 2019 8:06 PMLeave a Comment

September 11th, 2019 11:29 AM
I do not know why I choose this topic. Just want to tell a few stories, then you will know what I meant.

I have one client who is on 4.375% 30 yr fixed loan with loan amount around 700k. We quoted rates from 4% to 3.5%, and now his goal is 3.375%. The goal is not to get the lowest rate. Instead, his goal is to save the money. I told him that he already saved a lot money by lowering the rate from 4.375% to 3.5%. And the lower rate of 3.375% was nothing compared to the big savings from 4.375% to 3.5%. What if he got the rate 3.375% one year later, or what if he would never get it(I know he should be able to get it).

Another one: borrower was on 30 yr fixed 4.25% for about 1.5m loan, then I locked the rate for 3.875%, then he asked BOFA got him 3.75%, and he asked me whether he could get 3.625% from me. I told him, if the direction was wrong, no matter how much you tried, the result would not be good. My suggestion to him was actually to get 7/1 ARM instead for around then 3% rate.

Another one: purchase loan amount 1.5m with higher closing cost, we know borrower will get lower rates for the same 1.5m loan amount with refinance. The borrower would call 7-8 lenders to compare the rate(though he chose me to do it). I told him that he should focus on closing. We know that he would do another refinance any way. And he would get a lower rate. Then the focus at the moment is to get a smooth closing. Is it not? 

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on September 11th, 2019 11:29 AMLeave a Comment

September 9th, 2019 4:56 PM
Boston Marathon is open for the registration. I am still not sure whether I would run or not. I still have one week to think about it.

One reason is that I already ran Boston before, and I do not have to run it again. And I can actually run a marathon in Europe, like Prague or Paris, or another city marathon. I know Boston is more "popular".

Another reason, I am more interested in Tokyo Marathon. The lottery draw time is September 19, 2019. But by them, the window for Boston closed. I do not have the chance to try both. Or I do. But they are too close.

I think I did not update my book list for a long time. I did read a lot recently. Will update it this afternoon.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on September 9th, 2019 4:56 PMLeave a Comment

Bonds and home loan rates hate good news. So, the influx of positive news abroad coupled with strong jobs data here in the U.S. pressured Mortgage Bonds lower and home loan rates higher.

The main event, which helped Stocks and hurt home loan rates, included fresh progress on the U.S./China trade front as both parties are set to meet once again in October. To be clear here, a U.S./China trade deal would be incredible for the entire global economy as it would spark more trade talks and deals around the world. If a deal is had, home loan rates will suffer -- the opposite is also true.

Bonds and home loan rates also hate uncertainty. So, when some uncertainty was lifted, as Brexit now appears to be on hold for the time being, this also helped Stocks at the expense of home loan rates. Finally, seeing uncertainty removed in Hong Kong as protests simmer down was yet another hurdle for U.S. Bonds to contend with.

The Goldilocks economy in the U.S. continues. August jobs growth remains strong, the consumer continues to spend, and there is no recession in sight. All this good news and we still have home loan rates hovering near three-year lows. 
 

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on September 6th, 2019 1:46 PMLeave a Comment

September 4th, 2019 2:52 PM
30 Yr fixed rate will not go much lower from the current level. Maybe 0.125% to 0.25%.
15 Yr fixed will have much room to go lower, but it will go lower after each Fed rate cuts.

ARM rate will go lower after Jan, 2020. It will go below 3% for sure, 2.5% to 2.625% possible. But it takes time.

Still I can not post mortgage rates, please send email to efloans@gmail.com for your loan scenario. But will get surprises. Or call 650-483-9278

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on September 4th, 2019 2:52 PMLeave a Comment

Home loan rates finished this past week essentially where they began, near 3-year lows. 

With all the chatter of a global recession and elevated fears that the U.S. will slip into a recession thanks to the recent inverted yield curve, why haven't rates improved further? Is the Bond market telling us something? Quite possibly. 

There is a force around the globe whose sole purpose is to promote job growth, manage inflation, and promote economic stability to avoid a recession...and they are the central banks of different countries. They have woken up around the world and have already started to enforce measures to promote economic growth. The European Union has already cut rates and is prepared to introduce more economic stimulus. And our Federal Reserve, the Fed, is set to cut rates multiple times over the next few months. 

These central bank rate cuts and additional stimulus serve as the opposite end of the tug of war, helping to pull economies from the brink of recession. And only time will tell if our Fed and other central banks around the globe are successful. 

It could be this very reason why interest rates, including home loan rates, have not declined further. If the Fed is going to cut rates to help promote economic growth and elevate inflation, it is actually bad for long-term Bonds like Mortgage Bonds. There is also a saying "Don't Fight the Fed." If the Fed is doing things counter to promote low long-term rates, they could win the tug of war and limit how low home loan rates will go. 

And we got the email that some banks will increase the interest rate a little bit for better profit margin, so that their books will look better.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on August 23rd, 2019 1:07 PMLeave a Comment

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