Mortgage Blog

February 8th, 2021 9:14 PM

I gave one quote today. This was the lowest Jumbo rate after last March. This is a very good rate.


But this lender does not allow to use the rental income to qualify. So it might not be good for all borrowers.


Posted by Eric Fang on February 8th, 2021 9:14 PMLeave a Comment

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February 7th, 2021 7:24 AM

1)All Good Things Come to an End

Interest rates hit historically low levels last year due to the pandemic outbreak and the worst quarterly decline in economic growth ever. Those rates have helped millions of homeowners refinance and save significant money on interest expense. On the purchase side, along with several other tailwinds, low rates have fueled a bonanza in housing.

Fortunately, we are closer to getting past the pandemic as vaccines are now seeing widespread distribution. This, along with enormous stimulus measures, pent-up consumer demand, and easy monetary policy, tells us the good times of ultra-low rates may have come to an end.

2)The Bonds Yield Curve Is Talking

Economists look at things like the yield curve in the bond market to predict oncoming recessions or periods of economic expansion. At the moment, the difference or "gap" between the 2-year note yield and 10-year yield is at the widest level in over three years. This means the bond market is telling us we are about to see an era of economic expansion. Yes, better times ahead. Bonds and rates don't like good news and better times, and it's why we have seen an uptick in rates since the beginning of the year.

3)Inflation Expectations at Nearly 7-Year Highs

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, what we expect to see inflation average over the next 10 years, is just a few basis points away from the higher levels in almost seven years. With Congress batting around another $1 trillion plus stimulus bill, along with fully reopening the economy, there is reason to believe these inflation expectations will rise even further. When inflation moves higher, rates move higher ... period.

4)What About the Fed?

The Fed has played a pivotal role in keeping rates relatively low by purchasing $120B worth of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). But despite those efforts, rates have crept steadily higher with the 10-year yield moving from .50% last August to 1.15% as of this writing.

Should rates move too high too quickly, the Fed will likely do more to try and pin down long-term rates, like purchase even more bonds or invoke some sort of yield curve control.

Conclusion: The interest rate will go slightly higher from now on. At least it will not go lower at this moment. I know a lot people emailed me saying that the interest rates are lower again, which is not true.


Posted by Eric Fang on February 7th, 2021 7:24 AMLeave a Comment

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I do not like my current website design. And I did not have the time to work on a few links yet, like the the book list etc.

I have been busy for almost a year now, and my life was like this; worked for 1-2 hours, then went out for a running; worked for another 1-2 hours; Then Lunch, and worked for another 1-2 hours; then took a nap, another working again. My reading/napping/running was simply for working more hours. So I hope the pandemic is over soon, so at least I can go out of town and travel, run a few marathons. Was thinking about not working over the weekends. But still too many loans, closed 31 loans last month; and 16 loans so far this month. I know the rate went up a little bit, it might be a good thing. But on the other hand, my clients hope to get lower rates.

Finished the half marathon last Saturday(Jan 30th) with finish time 1:46:58.


 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.008:278:272:571281371861940274106
2.1.008:418:417:5713313718819405107
3.1.008:218:217:5713714319119400106
4.1.008:108:107:4714414919119850112
5.1.008:018:017:0414715218919665112
6.1.007:507:507:171491531911982226111
7.1.007:577:577:3215115719019650115
8.1.007:537:537:121511571911981830113
9.1.008:098:097:361491551902021110109
10.1.008:098:097:48147152190196010103
11.1.008:058:057:2115115819020605110
12.1.008:228:228:051471521901960092
13.1.007:587:587:221511601902025099
14.0.110:487:177:231571631982040012
Totals:13.111:46:588:092:57145161190206593541,407


And then another half Sunday Jan 31st with finish time 2:06:45.

But I finished today's half one minute faster than last Saturday:

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.008:458:458:1912513818519000106
2.1.008:258:258:1013714318919805111
3.1.008:308:308:1113814218919600110
4.1.008:178:177:28142150191208110111
5.1.008:058:056:3514114919220655103
6.1.007:537:537:031461521932022224107
7.1.008:038:037:15146151192202106107
8.1.007:497:496:561471531912041629106
9.1.007:587:587:151481521922001010108
10.1.007:477:477:22149154193206016105
11.1.007:367:367:2515215719620406108
12.1.007:547:547:2115115719420400104
13.1.007:357:356:5815315819720650105
14.0.100:437:077:191581612032080010
Totals:13.101:45:278:026:3914416119220872891,401



 

Posted by Eric Fang on February 6th, 2021 11:24 AMLeave a Comment

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My daughter asked me why I worked on weekends. And I told her that I exercised as well. At least two half marathons on on Saturday and Sunday.

I explained that I had to work because my clients need me to complete the application. Anyway, here are the paces:

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.009:219:212:541201331801968510106
2.1.009:089:088:2813013418419400107
3.1.008:318:317:5613614318619460106
4.1.008:138:136:29135144188206100102
5.1.008:208:208:10140145188194106105
6.1.008:138:138:031411461881943030103
7.1.008:308:307:56140145185194187100
8.1.008:168:167:19139147187196183093
9.1.008:088:087:461441491891961016102
10.1.008:158:157:5614414719019651698
11.1.008:188:187:5214314618919601094
12.1.008:078:077:3314515019219611596
13.1.007:527:527:2114915619220250100
14.0.100:427:107:161581591942080010
Totals:13.101:50:018:232:541391591882081941181,322

Posted by Eric Fang on January 24th, 2021 5:03 PMLeave a Comment

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January of 2021 was almost over. I had the problem to write this blog because of end life of flash driver of Adobe. My website depends  heavily on the flash driver. And it took me some time to figure out how to write a blog again(but the layout is still bad)

A lot of things happened this year, we have a new president now, and the stock market kept going up. And the most important thing for us: the interest rate started going up after Jan 6th. Now it is very hard to get 30 yr fixed rate of 2.5% any more.

But we still have some good news. Like Jumbo 7/1ARM rate is around 2.625%(APR 2.625% to 2.75%); 30 yr fixed Jumbo still around APR 2.875% etc.

For 2020, I had a few major changes: 1)I went to sleep around 10:30pm(went to bed at 9:30pm). So I read a lot of books. And I felt much better. My memory is getting better, and I do not have the headache any more. It bothered me when I worked in HSBC in 2019. And I felt so good. 2) I switched my investment strategy, and switched more funds to QQQ and high tech stocks. 

For the first a few weeks of 2021, For my mortgages, I only focus on the past clients and your referrals. Still I believe that the mortgage rate is not that important in our big financial picture. We only need to take whatever best rates the market offers and concentrate on the other important things. For myself, even though I still work hard(I closed 25 loans so far this year), I focus more on the family, my health, my friends etc.  I gained some weights(currently weigh around 178lbs to 180lbs) though, mainly because of holiday diets. I planned to do some 10 minutes abs, but it did not go well. So I changed to do abs every other day.  My running was still good, I ran on the average of 40-50 miles per week, with one half marathon each week.  Here is the paced of the half marathon I ran this morning, still not too bad: 

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.0010:0210:026:54121138169194078110
2.1.008:478:478:0313614318419405112
3.1.008:398:397:4213514218719450106
4.1.008:358:357:35140147188196100108
5.1.008:198:198:0014515018719275111
6.1.008:178:178:001451501871942828108
7.1.008:228:227:4814414818619250105
8.1.008:268:267:35143149185194252598
9.1.008:138:137:461451501891961012100
10.1.008:258:258:0414114718819651684
11.1.008:258:257:571411461881960582
12.1.008:478:478:191391441882045067
13.1.008:158:157:301431511902046082
14.0.110:497:438:00146148194196009
Totals:13.111:52:288:346:54139151186204921611,282

Posted by Eric Fang on January 23rd, 2021 1:08 PMLeave a Comment

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December 6th, 2020 4:48 PM
Before the topic of the marathon race today, I would like to have a little bit explanation of the interest rate on my website. The real rate might be lower. Please email me if you are interested.

The main reason is that I do not attract shoppers. So I mainly work for my past clients and your friends. I got a few early payoffs this year(actually 4 payoffs, one of the lender did not want me to pay back since our volume was good, but I paid penalties for the other three). And I indeed told them not to refinance earlier. And one of them told me that the other lender's rate was low. And I told him drug dealers can make more money, do you want to do it?

The good thing was the payoffs was still less than 1%. So most of my clients are actually very very good. I indeed rejected a few loans, for example, I locked 2.75% for client, and he asked to re-lock the rate since other lender could lock a rate for 2.69%.

Back to the marathon race. We got the email yesterday morning that the race was cancelled due to increased covid-19 cases. So 3 of us decided to run on our own. The pace was not bad.

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.008:428:427:57127138184196105110
2.1.008:378:378:19131140186192016106
3.1.008:408:408:2213213618619060102
4.1.008:458:458:15133138186192100100
5.1.008:478:478:271311361881946590
6.1.008:548:548:371331431871925094
7.1.008:498:498:3114114718519005114
8.1.008:388:388:1013614418719001193
9.1.0011:3111:316:281271431862020587
10.1.008:008:007:4314314918919406103
11.1.008:388:388:211361401861940584
12.1.008:338:338:1413614018919401181
13.1.008:478:478:191361391881940581
14.1.009:049:048:4713614118819210081
15.1.008:598:598:31137141188192161082
16.1.009:329:329:0713513918619210071
17.1.009:029:028:4213914418819810087
18.1.008:228:227:46147151190196016110
19.1.0014:3414:346:59133150186200510112
20.1.008:528:528:2214614918719277112
21.1.009:039:038:1814615018819805107
22.1.008:558:558:14148153190198100113
23.1.008:258:257:5715115519420007115
24.1.008:348:347:55152155192198115114
25.1.008:478:478:2515215619019650115
26.1.008:578:578:11151155190198100109
27.0.211:478:268:151531561932000523
Totals:26.213:58:279:056:281391561882021181182,596
I took a water break on mile 9 & 19. I think my legs had a rest after that. I felt very good after the run, and took 1.25 hrs nap, and back to work on the loans again.

And I will follow shelter in place order for the next a few weeks/months

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Posted by Eric Fang on December 6th, 2020 4:48 PMLeave a Comment

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November 28th, 2020 9:46 PM
Please see www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020 for the most recent half marathons I ran for the last 6 months. I finished a really good run this morning. The last 5 mile paces were pretty good. Here are the paces:

Workout Laps/Splits

Lap Dist (mi) Time Avg (min/mi) Max (min/mi) Avg HR Max HR Avg SPM Max SPM Gain (ft) Loss (ft) kCal
1. 1.00 11:37 11:37 9:09 115 125 174 180 12 5 118
2. 1.00 10:25 10:25 9:32 119 128 177 184 49 63 109
3. 1.00 9:45 9:45 8:57 125 132 181 184 12 10 103
4. 1.00 9:38 9:38 9:05 127 133 181 188 0 0 100
5. 1.00 9:27 9:27 8:25 126 136 184 190 12 12 91
6. 1.00 9:00 9:00 7:33 125 137 181 194 11 0 90
7. 1.00 9:02 9:02 8:25 127 132 183 188 5 0 82
8. 1.00 9:07 9:07 8:52 126 131 183 188 0 0 78
9. 1.00 8:36 8:36 7:46 130 139 185 194 7 5 82
10. 1.00 7:37 7:37 7:21 144 151 194 200 0 5 105
11. 1.00 7:36 7:36 7:09 148 153 195 202 6 16 109
12. 1.00 7:28 7:28 6:59 153 157 197 206 0 5 111
13. 1.00 7:29 7:29 6:49 153 158 199 208 0 5 111
14. 1.00 7:27 7:27 6:57 156 159 199 210 5 0 114
15. 0.01 0:03 6:22 7:11 157 158 194 194 0 0 0
Totals: 14.01 2:04:25 8:52 6:50 133 159 186 210 102 112 1,403

I think it is better to keep the hear rate around 148-150.

The race is next Sunday. The only I need to do is to persuade my wife that it is safe to run during this pandemic. I will do the covid-19 test next week. And most people will get the tests. And we need to check the temperature before the race. Hopefully everything goes well, and I will have the tapering next week



Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 28th, 2020 9:46 PMLeave a Comment

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1)

Stocks, Bonds, and rates are responding to the tug-of-war playing out between vaccine hopes and the rise in COVID-19 cases, along with additional lockdowns.

Pfizer was out this past week saying its vaccine has a 95% effectiveness rate. Moreover, the firm says they will have 50 million doses available before year-end and as much as 1.3 billion doses available in 2021.

On top of this, Moderna has a very effective vaccine and there are dozens of firms ready to deliver additional doses and therapeutics.

Stocks and rates have moved higher because both are forward-looking. Yes, the rise in cases and hospitalizations is a concern, but at the moment the markets are looking four to six months down the road and there is hope that with a high vaccination rate we can return back to normal sometime in 2021.

2)

Single-family Housing Starts showed the highest reading since 2007! Historically low interest rates and shifting demand to move to the suburbs are the drivers.

The main challenge for builders is keeping up with the demand. Available lots and decreased availability of supplies are headwinds for builders.

One thing is for sure: If land and materials are scarce, expect new home prices, currently averaging $326,000, to continue to climb.

Bottom line: Rates hit historic lows, as reported by Freddie Mac, this week. With a vaccine and more stimulus on the way, it may be difficult to see rates improve much, if at all. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity, please contact me.


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 20th, 2020 12:08 PMLeave a Comment

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Great news for vaccine from Pfizer and Moderna. I think our life will be back to normal after summer of 2021.

2021 Napa Marathon cancelled as well. I think they should postpone it till the 2nd half of next year. Anyway, I do not have to register a lot of marathons for the next 2 years(Postponed Marathons: Houston Marathon, San Francisco Marathon, Napa Marathon, CIM, and Mountain to Beach Marathons, I paid them and will run those marathons in 2021 & 2022?).

Training is getting better. I gained some weights because of heavy afternoon tea(I need it because of the heavy/busy schedules, need more energy), and now I started cutting the diet and had more workout. My weight was back to 176.5 lbs this AM. Need to lose 2-5 more lbs.

Finished 18 Miles last Saturday(Nov 14th), Half Marathon Tuesday(Nov 17th) and Half Marathon Thursday(Nov 19th). Today's training was the best one since I ran based on my heart rate. It was between 144 and 147. I will do the same for the next a few halves, and the Marathon on Dec 6th.

Paces for Saturday:

Workout Laps/Splits

Lap Dist (mi) Time Avg (min/mi) Max (min/mi) Avg HR Max HR Avg SPM Max SPM Gain (ft) Loss (ft) kCal
1. 1.00 10:14 10:14 9:23 118 131 178 186 51 39 112
2. 1.00 8:47 8:47 8:17 129 136 184 190 0 5 106
3. 1.00 9:11 9:11 8:37 132 139 185 242 6 0 111
4. 1.00 8:51 8:51 8:27 137 143 185 190 0 0 115
5. 1.00 9:06 9:06 8:18 139 146 185 192 0 0 118
6. 1.00 8:46 8:46 8:28 140 146 184 190 0 10 110
7. 1.00 8:59 8:59 8:31 133 142 185 190 0 0 86
8. 1.00 8:45 8:45 8:25 133 135 187 192 10 0 78
9. 1.00 8:57 8:57 8:42 130 135 185 190 18 5 69
10. 1.00 8:55 8:55 8:25 130 137 185 192 11 5 69
11. 1.00 8:43 8:43 8:22 133 143 185 192 11 19 77
12. 1.00 8:27 8:27 8:12 140 146 187 192 7 11 99
13. 1.00 8:39 8:39 8:22 134 144 186 190 0 18 79
14. 1.00 8:18 8:18 8:00 139 145 187 194 0 5 90
15. 1.00 8:28 8:28 7:59 139 144 186 194 0 5 91
16. 1.00 9:11 9:11 7:41 139 145 186 194 0 6 95
17. 1.00 8:52 8:52 7:52 140 147 185 192 0 11 90
18. 0.86 8:36 10:03 7:43 134 141 176 188 33 33 59
Totals: 17.86 2:39:55 8:57 7:42 134 147 184 242 138 154 1,65
Paces for Tuesday:

Workout Laps/Splits

Lap Dist (mi) Time Avg (min/mi) Max (min/mi) Avg HR Max HR Avg SPM Max SPM Gain (ft) Loss (ft) kCal
1. 1.00 9:43 9:43 9:10 117 128 180 184 0 5 108
2. 1.00 9:09 9:09 8:37 127 134 183 188 0 10 105
3. 1.00 9:21 9:21 8:04 128 135 183 192 0 5 104
4. 1.00 8:24 8:24 7:17 132 143 191 202 12 0 105
5. 1.00 8:35 8:35 8:18 137 141 187 194 0 0 107
6. 1.00 8:42 8:42 7:57 135 141 187 194 16 22 98
7. 1.00 8:39 8:39 8:07 133 141 187 192 6 0 88
8. 1.00 8:44 8:44 7:57 132 139 186 196 13 26 83
9. 1.00 8:32 8:32 8:08 136 141 187 196 7 5 90
10. 1.00 8:33 8:33 8:19 135 142 187 192 0 10 84
11. 1.00 8:46 8:46 8:22 132 137 185 192 0 7 68
12. 1.00 9:15 9:15 8:39 130 135 184 192 0 5 65
13. 1.00 8:50 8:50 7:48 134 143 186 198 5 0 79
14. 0.11 0:55 8:19 7:50 140 143 191 200 0 0 10
Totals: 13.11 1:56:14 8:52 7:17 131 143 186 202 52 82 1,194

Paces for today:

Workout Laps/Splits

Lap Dist (mi) Time Avg (min/mi) Max (min/mi) Avg HR Max HR Avg SPM Max SPM Gain (ft) Loss (ft) kCal
1. 1.00 10:09 10:09 8:28 111 123 179 184 6 369 106
2. 1.00 9:58 9:58 9:31 120 125 180 184 5 11 105
3. 1.00 8:01 8:01 6:19 134 145 191 204 5 0 106
4. 1.00 7:56 7:56 7:03 139 148 192 200 10 0 105
5. 1.00 7:55 7:55 7:43 144 149 191 198 0 0 111
6. 1.00 8:00 8:00 7:21 145 151 190 198 28 36 111
7. 1.00 7:43 7:43 6:54 141 150 193 208 6 5 102
8. 1.00 7:45 7:45 7:05 146 151 190 196 12 31 107
9. 1.00 7:46 7:46 7:35 146 152 191 196 10 5 104
10. 1.00 7:39 7:39 7:26 146 150 192 200 0 10 101
11. 1.00 7:44 7:44 7:26 146 151 192 198 0 5 99
12. 1.00 7:53 7:53 7:38 146 150 192 198 0 0 98
13. 1.00 7:53 7:53 7:06 145 150 192 202 0 0 86
14. 0.12 0:53 7:25 7:25 150 152 193 196 0 0 12
Totals: 13.12 1:47:21 8:10 6:19 139 152 190 208 69 463 1,353


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 19th, 2020 9:26 AMLeave a Comment

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It is very interesting. I started training for a Jan marathon since Oct. And in Nov, I ran one half marathons almost every other day. And I felt good. I can finish around 1:45 to 1:50 most of the time. And I know I am ready for a marathon, and yesterday I got the email saying that I can register for a marathon with less than 500 runners.

Finished another half marathon yesterday. Here is the pace:

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.009:159:158:15115131184192455101
2.1.008:258:257:5612613619019661099
3.1.008:188:188:0713413819019400104
4.1.008:068:067:47139143192196160107
5.1.008:028:027:3014314619019605110
6.1.008:038:037:361421461912003024106
7.1.007:537:537:21143147192198125105
8.1.007:537:537:241431491911961733101
9.1.008:018:017:41144150191196125101
10.1.007:547:547:1914314719319601194
11.1.007:567:567:391421461931980591
12.1.007:587:587:411411441922020080
13.1.007:477:477:241421491932045079
14.0.110:467:177:161491511902040010
Totals:13.111:46:248:077:16138151191204128921,288
 And I will run another half marathon tomorrow, or maybe 16 miles. It depends how I feel after the half. But I will need a long run before the race.

Still gained some weights recently. That was mainly due to my afternoon tea. I worked very hard in the last a few months, and my body needed sugar, so I had a very good afternoon tea, and my body absorbed most of the fat. It is the time to lose 3-5 lbs before the race. 

Since I did not run a marathon race for a long time, I expect to finish around 3:40. Let's see my training results in 3 weeks.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 13th, 2020 9:03 AMLeave a Comment

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November 9th, 2020 11:16 AM
The interest rate went up a little bit because of the good news from Pfizer, and the stock market went up a lot as well.

If you read my blogs recently, I ran 3 half marathons each week, and I told my wife that my body is marathon ready. So whenever we can run marathons again, then I do not need extra training. And you can tell what I am very optimistic about the vaccine and the economy recovery. If China can do it(Pandemic under control), we can do it as well.

I know a lot of people expect much lower market rates, if there is more optimistic news about vaccine, then the interest rates were bottomed. That's why I always recommend to take whatever the best rate on the market. We never know which rate is the best rate. And we can not timing the market, either stock market, or bonds.

Here is the pace for another half marathon this morning, I think I can keep it below 1hr50 minutes for quite sometime:

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.009:289:288:4112313517918406111
2.1.008:248:248:01136143186190510112
3.1.008:138:137:3614014418819260112
4.1.008:088:087:52141146189194100109
5.1.008:118:117:4714214818919800109
6.1.007:587:587:361451491911962733108
7.1.007:417:416:5314815219219865109
8.1.007:457:456:431461521922021633104
9.1.007:587:587:3214414819119661697
10.1.007:597:597:2514114719219801685
11.1.007:587:587:461431471931980587
12.1.007:557:557:361431461931960080
13.1.007:487:487:091451501932006087
14.0.100:467:217:29147149194198008
Totals:13.101:46:188:066:46141152190202691151,318
And I still have lots of room since my heart rate us only around 145. I know it was around 160 to 165 at the race.

Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on November 9th, 2020 11:16 AMLeave a Comment

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November 7th, 2020 3:20 PM
Another easy half marathon this morning. It seems pretty easy, since it is very slow. Here is the pace:

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.009:219:216:33119133178200510105
2.1.009:099:098:441301341811861212111
3.1.008:508:506:521351451831963741111
4.1.008:508:508:18138144184190511114
5.1.008:378:378:0814014518719250113
6.1.008:368:368:24139144186192010104
7.1.008:378:378:2813814118619201097
8.1.008:558:558:251381441871900096
9.1.008:448:448:311351391861900083
10.1.009:249:248:42134143184190442881
11.1.009:189:188:34131142182192262864
12.1.009:109:109:0013313918218851173
13.1.008:558:558:171361431841925081
14.0.171:369:418:171431471831920019
Totals:13.171:58:098:586:491341471842001311511,252

Did not push that much. See the link below: www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020

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Posted by Eric Fang on November 7th, 2020 3:20 PMLeave a Comment

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November 5th, 2020 10:12 AM
I thought I did not run well. But it turned out ok. It was only about 3.5 minutes slower than Tuesday. Let's see whether I can run another  good one this Saturday. Here is the link for the Half Marathons I ran after May 21st: http://www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020

I listened a podcast yesterday. It is about Money. And money is a tool, it is not your ultimate goal. You can use money as a tool to reach your goals, or the life you enjoy and want to have. And while I ran this morning, I thought what would be my best investment, QQQ, SP 500 index funds? No. I think the most important thing is my health. I can complete lots of loans and make good money as long I stay healthy. You may not believe it, I finished about 40-50 books this year, ran 1900 miles, and completed over 100 million loans. And I still feel good.

Here is my pace today:

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.009:299:298:10120133179186350110
2.1.008:088:087:4613914418619400111
3.1.008:008:007:2614214819020060111
4.1.007:557:557:31146150191198100112
5.1.007:547:547:3114715119020070113
6.1.007:587:587:181471521902002826111
7.1.007:567:567:3214715219120075110
8.1.008:018:015:321461521892241228106
9.1.008:138:135:36145151189216115103
10.1.008:078:077:1514415018919401093
11.1.008:198:198:011421471871960081
12.1.008:258:257:511411471871940074
13.1.008:378:377:591401461841946068
14.0.110:528:127:50145146187190009
Totals:13.111:48:008:145:32142152188224108661,312



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Posted by Eric Fang on November 5th, 2020 10:12 AMLeave a Comment

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November 3rd, 2020 9:52 AM
Already finished 18 half marathons after May. I finished today's 1:44:32. No bad. Seem like I can finish marathon under 3:30 soon. Here is the list:  http://www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020.

And the pace today:

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.0010:2210:226:521191321771881016115
2.1.007:557:556:49138147189196010106
3.1.007:557:557:3014414819019400112
4.1.007:527:527:10147152191198100112
5.1.007:457:457:1815115419219805114
6.1.007:377:377:161511551942002430111
7.1.007:457:457:3215215619219860113
8.1.007:397:397:151521541921981630110
9.1.007:387:387:1915315919320675111
10.1.007:427:427:00151159192202016106
11.1.007:387:387:3015215619420000107
12.1.008:038:037:321501561912020598
13.1.007:457:457:171521571922025099
14.0.110:487:177:151561581972020011
Totals:13.111:44:327:586:52147159191206691081,425


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Posted by Eric Fang on November 3rd, 2020 9:52 AMLeave a Comment

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October 29th, 2020 10:35 AM
If we keep trying, I know I can run faster next year. Finished 8 miles tempo today, the pace is not perfect. But it was ok:

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.009:329:327:001171321761827418112
2.1.0010:2110:218:25120134174186100108
3.1.007:497:495:531421521922062222109
4.1.007:387:387:2315015419520060114
5.1.007:437:437:0514915219621005113
6.1.007:457:456:311491541952061716112
7.1.007:477:476:50148154195210115109
8.1.007:437:436:53152156194212010112
9.1.007:357:356:421511551932041223109
10.1.007:397:396:051531581942141010111
11.1.008:578:576:5313715918219871163
12.0.010:039:098:19145145190190000
Totals:11.011:30:368:135:531421581892141571121,172


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Posted by Eric Fang on October 29th, 2020 10:35 AMLeave a Comment

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October 27th, 2020 10:13 AM
Got Nike Air Zoom Alphafly yesterday, and ran the tempo this morning. My running form was bad, and my core muscle is not strong enough. I need more weight lifting and abs workout. Maybe more abs workout. Because of the pandemic , my gym was closed. 

Here are the paces for the 6 miles(from Mile 3 to 8):

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.009:419:417:57120134178184105107
2.1.009:589:589:091191291791861618100
3.1.007:327:326:04135147192204171796
4.1.007:377:377:151431471942021212104
5.1.007:347:347:061441501942061611102
6.1.007:347:347:051451511942024143102
7.1.007:367:367:051471531942085349104
8.1.007:387:386:581461521942082426100
9.1.0011:1911:197:311221471731960588
10.0.010:026:3511:05124124168168000
Totals:9.011:16:358:306:04135153188208184177903
Will try those paces for a few weeks, then move to the next level. And yes, the weather is much better now.

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Posted by Eric Fang on October 27th, 2020 10:13 AMLeave a Comment

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October 25th, 2020 8:53 AM
After one week of training, my pace was back a little bit. I hope next week's tempo pace would be back to around 7:50. Anyway, it was a good run. See the list for the half marathon I finished after May: www.ericfang.com/25HalfMarathon_in_2020

 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.009:499:498:551231341771843736109
2.1.009:059:057:261351441821864147113
3.1.008:268:268:04141146186192010111
4.1.008:338:338:1114214618719206112
5.1.008:168:167:3914515018819600111
6.1.008:298:298:0314414918919450109
7.1.008:278:278:1014314618819400102
8.1.007:537:537:30147152191200712103
9.1.008:368:367:321461541871944941106
10.1.008:048:047:331471511901981622101
11.1.007:447:447:0215115519420605105
12.1.007:327:326:5615515919720660107
13.1.008:238:236:481341591882025582
14.0.110:497:518:051431441911940010
Totals:13.111:50:138:246:571421591882061541711,381

I still keep reading for at lease one hour per day. I will update the booklist next week.


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Posted by Eric Fang on October 25th, 2020 8:53 AMLeave a Comment

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It is not because I started running. Just kidding. I ran more because the rate went up slightly higher. 

You can click https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=^TNX,then click 1M, so you will see the trend.

>>>>>>

Rocking the 80s

This past week, the U.S. 10-year Note yield, a proxy for long-term interest rates, climbed back above .80% for the first time since June. At the same time, mortgage-backed security prices, which determine home loan rates, declined to their lowest level since July, pushing mortgage rates higher.

Why?

Stimulus, Stimulus, Stimulus

With two weeks to go before the election, it's not a matter of if, but when a stimulus plan is coming. At the moment, it's looking like a plan of at least $2 trillion or more and the markets are preparing for the "future", which looks like further economic expansion and a growing threat of inflation -- both of which Bonds and rates hate.

In addition to the positive economic outcome stimulus provides, the new stimulus must be purchased by investors through Treasury auctions and the increased supply weighs on prices and drives yields/rates higher.

Don't Fight the Fed

This recent rise in rates has the Fed's attention. At the moment, the Fed is purchasing $120 billion worth of Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds each month to help pin down rates. Should Treasury yields continue to climb and drag Mortgage Bond prices lower still, causing home loan rates to rise, it is very likely that the Fed will step in and either buy even more Bonds and/or institute some sort of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to pin down long-term rates.

The Fed wants to further stimulate the economy by giving more and more people the ability to refinance or purchase a home, and much higher rates would prevent those efforts.

Bottom line: Rates are just above all-time lows, and as we are already starting to see, that they may not be for long. If you or someone you know would like to talk about the incredible opportunity for housing, please contact me.

Looking Ahead

In addition to the stimulus hopes, forthcoming election results, coronavirus cases rising around the globe, vaccine hopes, and more economies opening, there is a boatload of economic reports set for release next week that can move the markets.

There is also another round of Treasury supply hitting the Bond markets. It will be interesting to see if the recent increase in yields will be enough to attract investors.

<<<<<< 




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Posted by Eric Fang on October 23rd, 2020 11:35 AMLeave a Comment

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October 22nd, 2020 11:38 AM
The plan was to get 50+ miles per week, 4 mile tempo or speed work out on Tuesday, 7-10 Miles Tempo on Thursdays. And a long run on the weekend. For the long run, it will be either 10 miles or 13-16 miles. I will run 10 miles on every other weekend. And 13 to 16 miles on another weekend.

Here is the workout for today:
 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.0011:5011:509:521101201711801714112
2.1.0011:1911:198:3411712716818450111
3.1.008:188:187:291361461871962828102
4.1.008:108:107:531451481892061624110
5.1.008:118:117:2314815219020000113
6.1.007:577:577:181491531902001524110
7.1.008:018:017:21151155191200713112
8.1.007:547:547:30151155192198017109
9.1.008:108:107:441501551892001322109
10.1.009:399:398:00138149183202121684
11.1.009:559:557:57128141173192222058
12.0.232:028:528:451371411841880014
Totals:11.231:41:319:027:191381551842061211711,144
And the workout last Tuesday:
 

WORKOUT LAPS/SPLITS

LapDist (mi)TimeAvg (min/mi)Max (min/mi)Avg HRMax HRAvg SPMMax SPMGain (ft)Loss (ft)kCal
1.1.0010:3210:329:141211321711821065112
2.1.0010:3210:329:3412413217217876110
3.1.008:008:005:381371501902122222102
4.1.007:567:567:371481521891961111109
5.1.008:018:017:1714815319120460109
6.1.007:517:517:231511541901962023108
7.1.007:567:567:23152156191202125109
8.1.009:219:217:37134155180192121873
9.0.010:039:338:11140140180180000
Totals:8.011:10:168:465:3813915618421218479832

The pace was not fast, around 8 minutes per mile. Will improve gradually. I think I can run any marathons over the weekend after 2 months of training.

And I rewarded myself with a new pair of nike shoes: Nike Air Zoom Alphafly Next%. I should be able to run 7:40 pace in Dec; 7:30 pace in Jan.



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Posted by Eric Fang on October 22nd, 2020 11:38 AMLeave a Comment

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I told my wife today that I wasted my beautiful morning on running. Ran a 2 hour half marathon, and another 45 minutes to take a rest, and still did not touch any of the loans. I know I still need to work on 5 other loans.

Planned to run 50 half marathons this year. The link is here: www.ericfang.com/50HalfMarathon_in_2020. But I did not run much during the summer since I had to focus on the funding. I was afraid the funder would request something from me, and if I could not get to her right away, then I would delay the closing. That's why i closed lots of loans in the past a few months. But I think I need a change, the loans are not that important. And I think the good health, the exercise is more important.

I would run a marathon myself on 01/08/2021 or 01/09/2021 to celebrate my birthday. Starting next year, to qualify Boston is a piece of cake for me now, the real reason is because of my age. I am not sure whether this a good thing, or bad.

I registered Napa Marathon this morning. It is supposed to take place on March 7th, 2021. I hope I could run, but it is ok if the race would be deferred again. But I would pretend the race will continue so I will train as scheduled.  And the most important thing was I registered London Marathon for October. Hopefully I can run by then.

I do not know whether you can read to the end of this blog, and the most important one, about the interest rate: I think the rate will keep going down. Let's get ready and take whatever the market gives.

And the last thing, the real estate market is very hot. It is very hard to get a property in Irvine, San Diego, Seattle, Truckee, and Tahoe. I heard that the Tahoe market is up 30% to 40% this year.



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Posted by Eric Fang on October 18th, 2020 11:37 AMLeave a Comment

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October 12th, 2020 10:18 AM
I started my planning for marathon again. Over the weekend, I finished a half marathon Saturday with the finish time 2:00:02. Not bad. And also I contacted charities for running London Marathon in Oct 2021. And I am training for it now.

I updated my marathons www.ericfang.com/MarathonCompleted today. I will register more once there are more good news regarding the pandemic. I know and I am certain it will be over soon. So let's prepare for the best.

Some good news for the H1B holders. I have an attorney friend who told  me today that she was very very this year just because the green card status moved 2 years faster than expected. So lots of applicants will get the green card soon.

Good for them, and good for everyone of us.

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Posted by Eric Fang on October 12th, 2020 10:18 AMLeave a Comment

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I talked to one of my friends today and encouraged him to be a loan agent. The main reason is that our rates are very competitive. So we have some advantage for the business.

But that does not mean we have the lowest rate, or we can get the lowest rate. The reason is very simple: we are not sure whether the rate go much lower from the current level, and we do not recommend my borrowers just "wait" for the best rate.

A few reasons, for example, I had one propect who has 3.75% rate for jumbo loan, and I recommend him to get 3% and finish the refi. The main savings is from 3.75% to 3%. You can wait for 2.875%, but the longer you wait , the more you will pay during the waiting period. And you do not know whether 2.875% would be the lowest. You never know. In Europe, people are paying around 2% mortgage rates now.

I have another client who is very busy professional. And she emailed yesterday and told me that the previous agent who could not get her a better rate, and offered 0.125% better rate. I told her that he could try, but for my own opinion, if you have a very good professional working for you, do you really want to change, and you do not even know much about the other agent?

I have been working with my CPA for over 20 years. And when my friends asked me for the referral, I recommended him, and yes, he charged more hourly fee. But when I worked with him for such a long time, I feel very comfortable with the fees, and I do know some other CPAs charge much less. But indeed he knows me, knows my financial and my business, and gives me some advice once in a while. And in another word, we are like friends.

And also recently I got very good advice about the investment. It is worth more than just the money. Sometimes, some good advice in invaluable.

Back to the topic of running, I think I am ready for another round of training, maybe I can not run a marathon any time soon, I can try a virtual. I got the notice of SF Marathon, CIM, Houston Marathon cancelled. So I will not register any marathons in the near future. But I will plan to run a virtual myself. Maybe sometime March of 2021.


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Posted by Eric Fang on October 6th, 2020 12:09 PMLeave a Comment

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The interest rate went up last week. I did not change my website rate recently, for about three weeks. Normally I did not have the lowest rate on the website for some programs, sometimes more traffic is a good thing, other times it is not.

I will close about 20m loans this month. I dreamed about this level for quite some time, and when finally I am back at this level, I am not exited at all.

My dream scenario is that I can work at my own pace, I can work smartly, and also very competitively. Sometime I am cool about it, other times I am not. I know I can close more loans, but I need room for reading, running , travelling(can not do it now).

I still run about 6 miles a day, read at least one hour per day. And a little bit weight lifting related or abs related workout once in a while. San Francisco Marathon sent me emails about virtual marathon. Not sure whether I will do it, though I still lack of the marathon training. And CIM marathon cancelled this year as well.

The good news is that the interest rate went up this week. Suddenly I have a little more time now. So I am rich now, in time, I can have more time, what should I do? Maybe more reading, more running, what else can I do. Maybe I can prepare a virtual marathon this year.

The bad news is that the interest rate will go back lower again. Maybe as soon as Nov-Dec time. So if you miss the boat, we can still have plenty of time. But do not have your own expectation of the rate, we do not how low it can go.

Let's finish this blog with a story. When Ben Bernanke was the Fed Chairman, he refinanced his home loan twice. He did not know the rate could go lower the first time, and he still did not get the lowest rate the 2nd time. As someone said, no one can predict the market.

And I will write blogs more. That's a good thing, for sure.



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Posted by Eric Fang on September 25th, 2020 8:11 AMLeave a Comment

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September 4th, 2020 12:02 PM
I was thinking a lot recently. My business in August was 25% better than July. Then I realized that I would need to slow down. So I started going back to the Gym(with masks), and started workouts. My personal trainer said that I looked like losing some weight and so slim now. I know why, I did not do much abs recently. Si I went back and started exercising as regularly as before.

I did not run much either, though I biked a lot. I would follow a schedule and train for the virtual San Francisco Marathon. Then at least we can "pretend" everything is normal.

Jumbo rate starts getting better, especially those 30 year fixed. Around 3.125% or better, depends on the loan amount, LTV. So the size of the loan would be picking up.

Still hold those tech stocks I picked up in March, April time, NVDA, FB, QQQ, NKE, GOOG, MA etc. All at comfortable level. Will hold it for some time.

And surprisingly, I purchased FNF recently. I think the Refi will help FNF, and anyway, there is 4% dividend, you know, I like dividend so that I can hold it longer.

Still keep reading books, around 1 hour per day, really enjoyed. I think I would write some notes, or share it with some others.  

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Posted by Eric Fang on September 4th, 2020 12:02 PMLeave a Comment

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August 25th, 2020 11:59 AM
It means that it is going higher. We can not do some low rates now, like 2.5% for 15 yr fixed etc. And 3% for 30 Yr fixed high balance now.

I know some people might get better rates, like some clothes sale on the black Friday, you might get some Exceptional good rates. But some people might get hurts. I do not know how many lenders will "void" those very low rates when FHFA charged 0.5% fees. It squeezed the profit margin, and make the lender unwilling to close the loans. 

Please let me know when the lender tell you that they were busy, and your rate expired, so they could not get those rates for you?

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Posted by Eric Fang on August 25th, 2020 11:59 AMLeave a Comment

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August 22nd, 2020 2:26 PM
The interest rates started going up(or paused the trend of going down). So do not expect the rate will go down too much from here. One of the main reason was because of the news below: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/951943.aspx

Yes, the government wanted their share of the booming refinance.

This morning I got an email from a client: I will pull the trigger if the high balance loan rate is 2.875% or lower. But I told him that it might be hard. 

The question to me is : why you set up a goal for 2.875% or 2.75% or lower: How did you get the target? 

The reason for my question was actually, personally I think those rates are very very good rate. Just grab whatever you can get. You can not get those rates all the time. Those are cheap debt. 

A few months ago, a client complained that he missed the good opportunities of the coming back of the stock market this year. And he thought that the market would go lower. And it did not. But for me, I do not even care whether the marker will go further lower or not. I divided my cash into 4, and purchased 25% as the market went down 10%; then another 25% as it went down 20%; and another 25% when it went down 30%. And I still have the rest of the cash on hand.

I told my clients to stay with the lender for 6 months after the closing. But still there was one person refinanced within the 6 months. And we would get the penalty if the loan gets closed soon. 

Did not run much the last week because of the heat and wild fire, not sure whether I can run more next week since I will fund 15 loans in the next 6 business days of this month. Very busy the end of the month.

But I still continue the reading and I really enjoy it. This week I started : How to Live: Or A Life of Montaigne in One Question and Twenty Attempts at an Answer by Sarah Bakewell. This is a good book, especially after a weekend running or biking.
  

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Posted by Eric Fang on August 22nd, 2020 2:26 PMLeave a Comment

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August 17th, 2020 8:31 AM
Some of you might have already known that the government wanted to share the profits from the refinance business. Basically they wanted to have 0.5% for each loan. And because of that, the rate will go up around 0.125% for each loans. The rental rates has not been stablized yet. 

See the link below. http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/951943.aspx  

For me, I am still doing great, for my exercise and business. I rode bikes a lot recently, mainly because that it is too hot. I will be back to running when it cools down a little bit. For the refinance business, June business increased 25% from May; And July's business increased another 20%. August is expected to have another 20% increase. The only problem is that I am no longer young any more. Otherwise, I can finish the twice of the volume. On the one side, I am missing the old days when I have endless energies. And on the other side, I am still happy about what I accomplished.

Glad to talk to a few of the clients. The basic topic was : do not think too much about the refinance rate. The mortgage business is only very very tiny part of your financial picture. You will need to think BIG, think the long run and think for the future.

Two things are for sure now: 1)The debt is cheap. When the interest rate is below 3%, borrower as much as possible. 2)Do not be afraid of the financial markets. If you take a look of the RE market, the stock market 20 years ago, everything was cheap. Just purchase it, and keep it. This is for long run. If you purchased a house in the bay area, it does not matter how much you paid for it. 300k or 400k purchase price, it does not matter. Right?



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Posted by Eric Fang on August 17th, 2020 8:31 AMLeave a Comment

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July 31st, 2020 6:34 PM
The Good:

This past week, home loan rates hovered at all-time lows in response to uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of COVID-19 and the realization that the Fed will keep rates low for a very long time.

The 10-year Note yield has moved convincingly beneath .60% for the first time since March 9th and that could lead to a further decline in yield in the days, and potentially weeks, ahead. This means that mortgage-backed securities, the driver of home loan rates, will have room to improve even further.

Housing continues to be the bright spot in the U.S. economy. Pending Home Sales soared this week and the real estate community has boosted their sales forecasts for 2020, suggesting the good times in housing will continue for the foreseeable future.

The Bad:

Stocks hate and Bonds love uncertainty. There was plenty of it this past week.

On Thursday, President Trump issued a tweet suggesting the election will be delayed until people can vote in person safely.

Technology shares, which have risen sharply since the lows in late March, experienced sharp price losses midweek as CEOs from Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook were gathered for an antitrust hearing and "grilled" by lawmakers on Capitol Hill. The hearings elevated fears that further regulation, and potentially the breakup of some very large companies like Amazon and Google, are in the future. Come Thursday, the argument that these firms are too big might have become stronger as each firm posted very strong corporate earnings and guidance, sending their Stock shares to all-time highs heading into the weekend.

Congress, which can never seem to agree on anything, is at it again this week as both sides are not even close to coming up with a new stimulus measure to further help the economic recovery. There is likely to be a resolution, but it's unclear as to when and how significant it will be.

The Ugly:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures U.S. economic output, came in at -32.9% for the second quarter. This was the worst quarterly economic decline in U.S. history. The markets were expecting an ugly number so the market reaction to this backward-looking data was a bit muted.

On a brighter note, it appears the recession ended in the second quarter while the third quarter is likely to show the largest increase in GDP in U.S. history. This is also expected as the economy improves sharply from what essentially was a shutdown for most of the U.S. economy.




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Posted by Eric Fang on July 31st, 2020 6:34 PMLeave a Comment

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July 13th, 2020 8:24 PM
I am working on one loan for 750k with the rate 3.125% for 30 yr fixed. But this rate requires FICO over 800. And some good rates for 15 yr fixed as well.

Too busy for the past a few weeks. I still kept reading, that's the way I got relaxed. Still on the track of finishing "The Story of the Roman People" series. Will finish Volume 14th this week. And will complete the last volume next week.

The only other thing I was not doing well is running. Since I did not run too much, and I ate too much when I work long hours, and eat a little bit more(I like chocolate too), so I gained a few pounds. I need to work on the running this week.

Loan volume was up 40% from May to June. And it is expected that volume will inncrease another 10% to 15% for July & August.  

My biggest problem and challenge is : how to balance the life, the time with my family, my reading, my running etc.

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Posted by Eric Fang on July 13th, 2020 8:24 PMLeave a Comment

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June 28th, 2020 1:43 PM
Almost half of 2020 will be over next week. And I spent most of the time working on loans. I know this is not right, but I do not have much choices.

My loan volume is up 42% in June compared to May. But I can still close half of the loan volumes, compared to 2009 to 2013. Mainly because of the capacity from the lenders, the escrow company, and I can not hire assistants either.

Finished 10 half marathons after May 21st(The link is here). I got a little bit schedule problems recently. Since I was busy for the loan funding, I could not just go out for the running from 7am and back to home 9am, then fund the loans. I still need the time to reply the other emails, lock the rates, etc.

I still have 32 locked loans needs to be closed in July. I always told myself that I had enough loans, and I need slow down, spend more time for the reading, spend more time with my family and also on running. And yes, biking as well.

Finished The Beginning of the End -- The Story of the Roman People vol. XI last week, that means I already finished 11 of 15 books. I can finish the whole volumes in the monthly July.

I did not go out for the running this Saturday. I started reading the book: 

????:???,????. I am surprised that Amazon has some books in Chinese. And I enjoyed the beautiful Saturday morning with such a book. I did not like go to museums before, but I think I have much better sense now after those history books, etc.
By the way, I like ???? as well.






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Posted by Eric Fang on June 28th, 2020 1:43 PMLeave a Comment

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