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A few thoughts -- Friday August 10
August 10th, 2018 10:19 AM
1)About working environment. I think we should feel happy about the job, the work and the working environment. If the job will not make you happy, I think we should quit that job, even if it will make you lots of money. It is not good for the health.

2)Read an article about the interview with Charlie Munger. See the link here:
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/718472/rare-charlie-munger-and-li-lu-interview--part-i.
We all know who he is, and how he is great about the investment with the partner Warren Buffett.  I like the part that College Professors, Judges and Value Investors can normally live longer. The main reason is that their emotions do not change too much everyday, not like journalist, the short term trades, they drink, sleep late and feel excited or unhappy so dramatically.  A few famous trades died at very young age, like  Jesse Livermore or William Delbert Gann. But Gann lived 77 years old, not bad actually.

3)The interest rates. There are two different opinion on the market. Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that 10 year treasury should be at 4% or 5% kevel(He used to say 4%, now 5%). The link is here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/dimon-doubles-down-on-higher-u-s-yields-call-with-5-warning But Robert Kessler, a bond fund manager, argued that the 10 year treasury would be stay at the 2.5% level, and eventually be below 1%.

So either of them could be right. If Jamie were right, then 30 yr fixed rate will go to 5.5% level. If Robert Kessler were right, then we could see 3.25% 30 yr fixed rate again.

But those predictions were useless, unless they would tell us about WHEN it would happen, right? But no one can tell, no one can predict since the economic conditions will change. And no one predicts the 2008 meltdown, right?

4)Home prices still continue go up, though the new home build permit slows. It is up because the inventory still low, and permits lower, because of the higher lumber price and shortage of construction workers. But the builders promised to train 50k workers. So it may take 6 months to train and hire new construction workers?

5)By the way, I have some good rates for Duplex loans, especially for the loan amount over 453k, ARM or fixed. Please let me know if you acquired Duplex recently.

Have a good weekend. And I will head to LA again this weekend. Might have some cool weather there and be away from the smoky wild fires.


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on August 10th, 2018 10:19 AMPost a Comment

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