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Open Interest in Bonds push the rates lower
August 20th, 2009 9:33 PM

We are at the lowest level since May 27th, the "black wednesday" move the rate 0.5% higher. We indeed have some good rates, like 5% for 30 yr fixed, 4.5% for 15 yr fixed, etc(all for no closing cost) and some good rates for ARM.

I know some agents also advertise for 4.25% for 5/1ARM (Loan<=729k). The is the rate for 7 day lock, or 15 daylock. I won't over-commitment. From my opinion, the rate may go slightly lower from here, but most likely it will bounce up before it's going lower futher.

The reason is very simple. The lender has pipeline management issue. For the past week, when the rate at the two months low, there are huge interest for the loan locks. Once the pipeline is full(or close to full), the lenders will hike the rate to protect the locks and profits.

Bond trades like any other secutities. There are some resistance at the current level. Once the break confirmed, the rate will go lower. But we are not at that level yet. So the rates will be traded at ranges for now.

The rate may go lower Friday, but it's hard to tell the next week. One exception: the weak stock market will push the rate lower.

Have a good weekend.


Posted in:General
Posted by Eric Fang on August 20th, 2009 9:33 PMPost a Comment

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