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Recession in 2020?
December 18th, 2017 10:45 PM

It has been two weeks since the Dec 3 Marathon, so I can run some training the past weekend. 8 miles Saturday, and 16 miles Sunday. Still could not run too fast, but my Feb Marathon is only 6 weeks away(Huntington Beach Surf City Marathon, Feb 4th).

Busy with my online courses these days. Yes, I am on schedule. But it took lots of time. I am listening to the classes three times a day. The total time is about 90 minutes. But it is ok since I can listen to the videos while walking the dog.

Completed "Shoe Dog" over the weekend.  This book was written by Nike founder, Phil Knight. I knew something about him, and I own NKE stocks. And also because I was the general manager of a shoe company of China from 91-93. So basically I had the experience on the factory side, and I indeed am familiar how the whole process works, except the sale competition between Adidas and Nike, and some other shoe sports companies. I might run 2018 Portland Marathon again(I ran 2017 one). If I do, I will plan to visit the headquarter in Beaverton, Oregon. I just want to see the streets, the building, etc.

Finally, let's back to the topic: Will we have recession in 2019? According to the article from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/recession-lurks-in-fed-s-bullish-new-jobs-forecasts?cmpid=BBD121817_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=171218&utm_campaign=markets. We might see the recession in 2020.

Fed expected the unemployment rate of 3.9% at the end of 2018, then 4.6% end of 2019. Low unemployment rate might trigger above-target inflation, and to counter these pressures, Fed "anticipates" tight policy to "guide" the unemployment rate back to 4.6%.


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Posted by Eric Fang on December 18th, 2017 10:45 PMPost a Comment

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