January 23rd, 2013 11:14 PM by Eric Fang
While I was on vacation the weekend at San Francisco,I got the email from one of the mortgage magazine,it indeed had the similar subject.
I tried to write something similar, but I think it's better to borrower their subect, it is moreeye-catching title.
First, Let's reviewed my history of "predicting the interest rate". Since 2008, I predicted the ratewould go over when the financial crisis just started.Then I predicted the lower ARM rates first, and calledthe ARM bottom of 2.375% to 2.5% rate for 5/1 ARM.Staring last year, I predicted the 15 yr fixed ratewould go lower around 2.5% to 2,625%, and ARM borrowerswould switch to 15 yr fixed.
And now, I agree with some of the other mortgageexperts, the rate will go up from here, thoughslowly and spiral way. The reason was very simple:the noise from Fed members to stop QE x purchase,the improved economy(or a little bit better), the recovery of real estate market, the not worseECB. All the numbers suggested low lower rates almostimpossible.
Then what we should do in the current market:1)Try to fix the rates if you have ARM andplan to stay long term.
2)Try to pay some closing cost to getsome better Refi rates. Usually the no closingcost strategy works the best when the interestrate going lower. When or if it goes up,then better to pay the closing cost.
3)No closing cost rental is almost imposible now,either for ARM or 30 yr fixed(15 yr fixed still possible), then we need to change our mind-set,it is OK to pay some closing cost for the rental refi.For example, if the current rate around 4.375% to 4.5%for 30 yr fixed, there is nothing wrong to get 3,5% rate with some closing cost. The break-even time is about one or two years. It will improve the cash-flow.
Sorry, It took me so long to finish this blog.A few readers indeed asked me when I can finsih it.And I am glad that I had it done today.